TechFlow News, April 17: According to CoinDesk, Glassnode’s RHODL Ratio has risen to 4.5—the third-highest level on record. This metric measures market structure by comparing the share of wealth held by long-term holders (those holding for 6 months to 3 years) versus short-term holders (those holding for 1 day to 3 months). The current reading suggests that, following a roughly 50% price correction over the past six months, a large number of short-term speculators have been washed out, and long-term holders have reasserted dominance—indicating market characteristics more aligned with a cycle bottom than a top.
Historically, the RHODL Ratio reached higher levels only twice: at 5 in 2015 and 7 in 2022—both corresponding to cycle lows, theoretically implying further downside potential for Bitcoin. However, analysts note that pushing the ratio even higher would require near-total exhaustion of short-term demand. Yet Bitcoin has already rebounded approximately 25% from its February lows, perpetual futures funding rates are negative, and the S&P 500 has hit a new all-time high amid a favorable macro backdrop—making such an extreme scenario relatively unlikely.
