TechFlow News, April 15: According to a CoinDesk report, Wall Street brokerage Bernstein released a research report stating that prediction market trading volume is expected to grow from $5.1 billion in 2025 to approximately $100 billion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 80%. Trading volume is projected to reach $24 billion in 2026, while Polymarket and Kalshi combined have already generated $6 billion in trading volume year-to-date.
The report identifies three core drivers of this growth: increasing regulatory clarity at the federal level, blockchain infrastructure enabling global liquidity, and integration with mainstream trading platforms. Industry revenue is expected to rise from approximately $400 million in 2025 to around $10.8 billion by 2030.
Distribution capability is viewed as a critical competitive barrier. Robinhood has achieved an annualized revenue of $350 million through prediction markets and is advancing its exchange infrastructure development; Coinbase, leveraging the Kalshi platform, provides nationwide access to over 1,000 contracts. Bernstein maintains an “Outperform” rating on both companies.
