TechFlow News, February 22: According to a Cointelegraph report, cryptocurrency economist Timothy Peterson’s latest analysis indicates that Bitcoin retains structural upside potential amid the current bear market correction. Over the past 24 months, 50% of months recorded positive returns (per CoinGlass data; positive-return months in 2025 include January, April, May, June, July, and September). This metric suggests a relatively high probability of encountering a positive-return inflection point within any given 24-month cycle.
Based on this, Peterson estimates an 88% probability that Bitcoin’s price will exceed its current level over the next 10 months—i.e., by December 2026. He emphasizes that this statistical model implies the market may be approaching a turning point rather than continuing its downward trajectory. Bitcoin’s current price stands at approximately $68,173—nearly 25% below its year-to-date high—and has erased most of the gains accrued following the 2024–2025 U.S. presidential election. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has plunged to “Extreme Fear” (9/100), while social media sentiment around Bitcoin price predictions has dried up (per Santiment data), indicating a neutral market mood.
