TechFlow news, January 5th, Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), columnist for the HTX DeepThink column and researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that US employment and economic data are once again becoming the core focus of the market, as they will directly influence when the Federal Reserve will implement its next interest rate cut. The minutes from the December Federal Reserve meeting indicate that some officials are cautious about continuing rapid rate cuts; meanwhile, the US third-quarter GDP was significantly higher than expected, which has largely ruled out the possibility of a rate cut in January. Currently, interest rate futures show that the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in March is close to 50%, with expectations still for at least two rate cuts throughout the year.
However, the premise of this judgment is that the job market cannot deteriorate significantly. If employment data continues to weaken in the coming weeks, expectations for a rate cut may be brought forward. Market focus will center on the December non-farm payroll data to be released this Friday, especially whether there is a significant downward revision to the November data. Due to insufficient survey samples previously, there is a possibility of a substantial revision to the November data, which is particularly crucial for market judgment. Before the non-farm payroll release, the ISM manufacturing and services PMI will also provide important references for economic trends and inflationary pressures.
For the cryptocurrency market, this is currently not a stage for "taking directional positions." Bitcoin is oscillating at high levels, showing neither a clear shift to bearishness nor strong upward momentum, reflecting more the reduced year-end liquidity and capital choosing to wait and see. From the perspective of the derivatives market, the implied volatility of options continues to decline, indicating that the market expects short-term fluctuations to be limited; meanwhile, put options still carry a certain premium, suggesting that capital is still hedging against potential downside risks rather than actively betting on an increase. This indicates that the market has not formed a consensus expectation but is waiting for confirmation from macroeconomic signals. If the non-farm payroll data weakens significantly, expectations for lower interest rates may strengthen, potentially reactivating Bitcoin's upward logic; conversely, if the data is strong, the market is likely to continue oscillating.
Looking ahead to the coming week, strategies of controlling positions and reducing leverage will be more reasonable. In a low-volatility environment, the market is more likely to digest macroeconomic information through neutral or defensive option structures rather than quickly forming a consensus directional expectation. From a price structure perspective, the area around $80,000 remains an important support zone for Bitcoin, but whether it can evolve into a trend-significant market still depends on whether employment data and policy expectations can provide clearer directional signals.
