TechFlow news, on December 11, according to Jinshi Data, MUFG stated that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in a 9-to-3 vote and acknowledged that the labor market is gradually cooling. Powell also emphasized significant downside risks facing the labor market. Regarding inflation, the Fed noted that if no new tariffs are imposed, goods inflation could peak in the first quarter of 2026, though persistent inflation risks remain. Powell signaled that rate hikes are not the base case expectation, with FOMC members divided between holding rates steady and cutting further. The median projection in the latest dot plot indicates only one rate cut in 2026, a notably more hawkish stance compared to market expectations of about 55 basis points (or slightly more than two cuts) in easing. Powell also stressed that the Fed is currently "in a good position" to patiently assess the evolution of the U.S. economy. Looking ahead, policy prospects for the second half of next year may become complicated by changes in the Fed's leadership, increasing market uncertainty.
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