TechFlow news, December 11 — Adam, macro researcher at Greeks.live, posted on social media stating, "As expected, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its recently concluded meeting. The Fed also announced the restart of purchasing $40 billion in short-term U.S. Treasury bills (T-bills). This dovish stance will effectively supplement liquidity in the financial system and is undoubtedly a clear market positive.
However, it is still too early to revive talk of QE restarting a bull market. With Christmas and year-end settlements approaching, this period historically sees the worst liquidity in the crypto market, resulting in low market activity and limited momentum for reigniting a bull run.
From cryptocurrency options data, over 50% of options positions are currently concentrated by the end of December. BTC's maximum pain point is at the $100,000 round number, while ETH's is at $3,200. The implied volatility (IV) across major tenors has declined throughout the month, indicating decreasing market expectations for volatility in December.
Notably, Skew has shown persistent negative skew this month, with Put prices significantly higher than Calls at the same Delta. This is mainly due to two factors: first, market stability has led covered call strategies to regain dominance, artificially suppressing Call prices; second, recent weakness in the crypto market has increased demand among traders using put options as downside protection.
In summary, the crypto market is currently weak, year-end liquidity is poor, and market sentiment is subdued. A slow decline remains the dominant view in the options market. Nevertheless, one should remain cautious against a potential reversal driven by unexpected positive catalysts (although the likelihood remains relatively low)."
