TechFlow, December 8 — According to Jinshi Data, a CICC research report stated that under the base case scenario, if Hassett becomes the next Fed chair, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar would initially decline before rising later, which would overall benefit U.S. equities. In terms of timeline, Trump is expected to announce the nomination of a new chair in early 2026. For Hassett, he would first need to be nominated as a Fed governor and confirmed by the Senate, then nominated as chair and confirmed again, officially taking office after Chair Powell's term ends in May 2026, potentially leading the June FOMC meeting. The first quarter next year will be a critical period when the market expectations start reacting to the new chair nomination. If Hassett expresses an overly dovish stance at that time, Treasury yields and the dollar may dip more than expected on a temporary basis. However, as long as he does not significantly cross the line into concerns over "loss of independence," actual outcomes combined with U.S. economic recovery could push Treasury yields and the dollar upward.
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