TechFlow news, December 4 — According to Jinshi Data citing a Reuters survey, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting to support a cooling labor market. Among the 108 economists surveyed, 82% (89 economists) hold this view. This strong consensus aligns closely with the results of the November survey and matches the nearly 85% probability of a rate cut priced into futures markets. However, it contrasts sharply with growing divisions among policymakers over whether further monetary easing will be needed next year. The lack of consensus is reflected in projections for 2026. While the median forecast suggests two additional rate cuts, bringing the federal funds rate down to 3.00–3.25% by year-end, no clear majority emerges for any quarter.
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