TechFlow news, on December 2, Tiger Research's latest report estimates that Strategy's (MSTR) static bankruptcy threshold is projected to be around $23,000 per BTC in 2025, significantly higher than the $12,000 level in 2023; the real high-risk window lies in 2028: if refinancing fails, the company may need to sell approximately 71,000 BTC at a Bitcoin price of around $90,000, equivalent to 20%–30% of spot market daily trading volume, which would exert substantial downward pressure on the market.
BiyaPay analysts believe that Strategy is currently not facing an "imminent blow-up," but its high leverage combined with concentrated debt maturities makes 2028 a "systemic risk point" that must be closely watched in Bitcoin’s medium- to long-term outlook. When ordinary investors use BiyaPay to trade assets such as MSTR, U.S. stocks, and Bitcoin with USDT, they should avoid over-committing to single DAT instruments, manage position sizes and holding periods prudently, and remain vigilant against the possibility that markets might price in long-term refinancing risks prematurely.
