TechFlow news, November 24 — Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), author of the HTX DeepThink column and researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that this week presents a typical "front-loaded, back-end vacuum" structure for both the U.S. and crypto markets: Thanksgiving and Black Friday compress effective trading days, concentrating all core data releases from Monday to Wednesday, including September’s PPI, retail sales, consumer confidence, durable goods orders, and initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22. This coincides with密集 speeches by Federal Reserve officials before the blackout period starting November 29, amplifying short-term macro volatility. Meanwhile, delayed data due to the government shutdown—Q3 GDP revision, October personal income/spending—and the absence of October’s nonfarm payrolls make the market highly reliant on high-frequency employment indicators, making Wednesday’s initial claims a key variable shaping market sentiment.
Against this backdrop, the crypto market continues digesting the deep correction since October, with Bitcoin down about 30% from its peak, ETFs seeing sustained net outflows, Coinbase premium weakening, and overall risk appetite remaining low. Although "stopping balance sheet runoff + earlier rate cuts" forms a medium-term positive outlook, the current phase resembles more of a "rebalancing stage before liquidity shifts," with institutions and quant funds still reducing positions and hedging, showing insufficient willingness to go long.
The derivatives structure clearly confirms this defensive posture:
CME BTC futures premium compressed below 4%, with flattening term structure indicating hedging outweighing speculation;
Short-term IV significantly higher than longer-dated options, reflecting volatility expectations amid holiday liquidity;
25-delta put skew negative across all maturities, with one-week put premium exceeding calls by over ten percentage points, indicating capital is willing to pay for insurance;
Data from Bitget and Deribit show rising IV alongside price declines, signaling a return of the "old-era fear pricing pattern."
Overall, the market is currently in the late stage of a downtrend, but risk appetite has not yet recovered. If this week's data continue showing marginal weakness in consumption and employment without triggering "hard landing" concerns, a technical rebound may follow. Conversely, stronger-than-expected data that dampen rate cut expectations could still trigger short-term downside moves, especially in an environment of extremely thin holiday liquidity.
Under these conditions, the market may prefer a cautious approach. Should Bitcoin pull back toward $80,000, it could become a focal point for gradual deployment of long-term allocation demand. Combining long-term bullish sentiment with short-term volatility pressure, a strategy of "long-duration longs + short-cycle hedges" may serve as one approach for institutions assessing potential repositioning timing.
