TechFlow, November 24 — After Federal Reserve officials Williams and Miran made dovish comments on Friday, Bitcoin (BTC) has shown initial signs of recovery, according to a QCP briefing. Market expectations for a rate cut in December have surged from 30-40% last Thursday to 75%. Although BTC has recently dropped over 30%, breaking multiple key support levels and leaving technical indicators still weak, derivatives markets suggest traders are placing two-sided bets—hedging against further downside while maintaining exposure to a potential year-end rebound. In the options market, the maximum pain price for year-end contracts stands at $104K, with open interest hitting a record high. In the perpetual futures market, leveraged long positions have been largely liquidated and funding rates have turned negative, potentially reducing the risk of further overselling. This week's Thanksgiving period will test whether the BTC rebound can sustain, as markets also closely watch whether ETF flows will reverse after weeks of record outflows.
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