Analysis: U.S. September non-farm payrolls unexpectedly surge by 119,000, complicating Fed's rate cut decision
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Analysis: U.S. September non-farm payrolls unexpectedly surge by 119,000, complicating Fed's rate cut decision
According to Jinshi Data, financial commentators in the UK analyzing the US September non-farm payroll report noted that the unexpected rebound in the US labor market will complicate the Federal Reserve's decision on whether to cut interest rates next month. The 119,000 new non-farm jobs added in September, released on Thursday, not only exceeded the 50,000 expected by economists in a surveyed institutions poll but also significantly surpassed the revised figure of 22,000 for August. The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in August to 4.4%, reaching its highest level since 2021. This report marks the first economic health indicator released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics since official data publication was interrupted due to the record federal government shutdown. The unexpectedly positive data will strengthen the stance of hawkish members on the Federal Open Market Committee, who have consistently warned against the Fed cutting rates too quickly. Following the data release, both US Treasury yields and the dollar index declined. Although President Trump has long pressured the Fed to lower rates, deep divisions have emerged within the central bank: one faction advocates continuing rate cuts at the December meeting to support the labor market, while the other fears such moves could exacerbate inflation risks. The government shutdown further complicates the Fed's decision-making—routine economic reports have been suspended, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Wednesday that, due to halted data collection during the shutdown, it would not issue a separate October employment report; some data will instead be incorporated into the November report.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsTechFlow news, November 20 — According to Jinshi Data, UK financial commentators noted that the US September non-farm payroll report showed an unexpected rebound in the labor market, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision on whether to cut interest rates next month. The 119,000 new non-farm jobs added in September, as released on Thursday, surpassed both the 50,000 forecast by surveyed economists and the revised figure of 22,000 for August. The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in August to 4.4%, the highest since 2021. This report marks the first economic health indicator released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics since official data publication was interrupted due to the US federal government’s record shutdown. The stronger-than-expected data will strengthen the position of hawkish members on the Federal Open Market Committee, who have consistently warned against cutting rates too quickly. Following the data release, US Treasury yields and the dollar index both declined. Although President Trump has long pressured the Fed to lower rates, deep divisions have emerged within the central bank: one faction advocates continuing rate cuts at the December meeting to support the labor market, while the other fears such moves could heighten inflation risks. The government shutdown has further complicated the Fed’s decision-making—routine economic reports were suspended, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Wednesday that, due to halted data collection during the shutdown, it would not release a separate employment report for October; some data will instead be combined into the November report.
