TechFlow, November 20 — According to Jinshi Data, the wave of U.S. layoffs has not shown signs of worsening: initial jobless claims were 232,000 for the week ending October 18, roughly in line with September levels. "I would only start worrying about the overall labor market if initial jobless claims reached 300,000 to 400,000 and remained above that level," said Oren Klachkin, economist at Nationwide Financial Markets. Economists like Klachkin believe a recession is unlikely in the short term. "If we were to make an analogy, the current labor market is like being in the final stretch of a marathon," Klachkin explained. "We experienced strong post-pandemic employment growth, and now we're entering the closing phase of this so-called race—labor market weakness is emerging, growth is slowing, and given the current stage of the economic cycle, there are indeed underlying risks." While there is a risk of a labor market collapse, it's more likely that it will struggle across the finish line and then regain strength early next year, aided by clearer tariff policies and fiscal stimulus from the tax spending bill. Klachkin noted, "Judging from Q3 corporate earnings reports, U.S. businesses are effectively sending relatively optimistic signals about the economy extending into next year."
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