TechFlow news, November 17 — Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher, analyzed that although the 43-day U.S. government shutdown has ended, a large volume of delayed economic data will be released in clusters. Market participants worry these data could weaken the rationale for a December rate cut. Several voting FOMC members have publicly expressed caution, causing rate cut expectations to cool rapidly. Amid reassessment of the interest rate path and tightening liquidity, risk appetite has sharply declined.
Bitcoin has fallen continuously since early October, dropping to $95,885 intraday on November 14, wiping out over $1 trillion in cryptocurrency market capitalization. High real interest rates are another burden, with U.S. 10-year TIPS yields rising to 1.82%. Reverse repo balances have nearly been depleted, while the Treasury's cash balance remains high, indicating an overall tightening of liquidity.
Options data show investors building defensive positions: On Deribit, put contracts at strike prices of $90,000 and $85,000 hold notional values of $158 million and $170 million respectively. Open interest is concentrated between $100,000 and $110,000, with the maximum pain point around $104,000 and a put/call ratio of 0.61. This positioning suggests traders are hedging against short-term pullbacks while preserving upside potential. Due to falling prices, long-term holders have sold over 810,000 bitcoins in the past 30 days.
In the coming week, speeches from voting members including Kashkari and Williams, along with the release of the FOMC minutes, will provide clues on policy direction. In the short term, cooling rate cut expectations and tight liquidity may confine Bitcoin to a range between $95,000 and $100,000. Galaxy forecasts it might hover near $120,000 by year-end. In the medium to long term, if government spending plans, the CLARITY Act, and liquidity injections materialize, the crypto market still holds rebound potential; otherwise, prices could decline further amid weak economic data or escalating political risks. Some institutions remain optimistic about the long-term trend, believing regulatory clarity, the next block reward halving, and institutional inflows will drive the next bull run.
