TechFlow news, October 30 — According to Jinshi Data, CITIC Securities research report stated that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of 25bps at its October 2025 meeting met market expectations. Powell’s assessment of the economic situation was similar to that in September, and he mentioned significant disagreement within the FOMC regarding whether to continue cutting rates in December, indicating a December cut is not "a done deal." However, we believe that for no rate cut to occur in December, the U.S. government would need to resume normal operations and release economic data that does not support further easing—conditions that are harder to meet than those for continuing cuts. Moreover, among the current 12 voting members in 2025, we still expect more to support a December rate cut, making the decision likely a "close call." We maintain our previous view that the Fed is likely to cut rates again by 25bps at the next meeting. After Powell downplayed rate cut expectations, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rose, while U.S. stocks and gold weakened. We expect the short-term market may continue to price in this reduced expectation for rate cuts.
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