TechFlow, October 27 — According to Jinshi Data, CITIC Securities research report stated that the current Trump administration is selecting the next Federal Reserve Chair, with the main competition expected between Waller and Hassett. For Trump, this represents a choice between "most suitable" and "most obedient." Current market probabilities favor Hassett, but given Trump's high level of trust in Beeson, investors should pay attention to the potential expectation gap if Beeson leads the interview process while safeguarding the Fed's independence. Considering precedents of markets "voting with their feet" and the resistance Trump faced in the Senate when appointing Miller as a理事 (glossary term:理事 → governor), we believe Hassett is unlikely to be confirmed, and Waller may ultimately prevail—potentially triggering a reversal trade on the narrative of "loss of Fed independence": bullish for overall U.S. dollar assets, bearish for gold, and markets may reduce expectations for rate cuts next year. If Hassett wins, we expect a market reaction driven by the "muscle memory" of "loss of Fed independence": bearish for overall U.S. dollar assets, bullish for gold, and markets may increase expectations for rate cuts next year.
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