TechFlow news, October 10 — According to Jinshi Data, on Polymarket and other prediction markets, traders increasingly believe that the U.S. government shutdown will last until the end of October or longer. Based on implied probabilities from trading prices on Polymarket, the current likelihood of the U.S. government shutdown lasting more than 30 days is 37%, up from 15% when the shutdown began on October 1. The longest government shutdown in U.S. history occurred during Trump's first term, lasting 34 days from December 2018 to January 2019. On another prediction platform, Kalshi, the probability of the shutdown lasting over 30 days is currently 39%, with traders on the platform averaging an expectation of a 24.7-day closure.
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