TechFlow, on September 29, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzed that this week, the crypto market experienced significant volatility under dual pressures from macroeconomic and liquidity conditions. Central bank officials worldwide have been vocal recently, coupled with seasonal factors, leading to a decline in overall market risk appetite. Bitcoin once approached the $110,000 mark, while Ethereum fell below $4,000. The overall trend resembled a "volume-backed correction" rather than a regular pullback, potentially triggering broader emotional ripple effects.
Current options data shows open interest (OI) remains high, but skew has tilted bearish, indicating increased investor demand for downside protection. Deribit's monthly large expiry is around $110,000; if prices hold above this level, it favors bulls, otherwise it may trigger passive hedging sell-offs. Meanwhile, RSI indicators for both Bitcoin and Ethereum are nearing oversold territory, suggesting potential short-term rebound momentum from a technical perspective, though the overall trend remains weak.
Economic data will be the biggest catalyst for price movements. Tuesday’s Chicago PMI, JOLTs job openings, and consumer confidence index will provide initial signals on the resilience of the U.S. economy. Thursday’s initial jobless claims and factory orders are also key indicators for monitoring employment and manufacturing. Most critical is Friday’s non-farm payroll report: if new jobs and wage growth exceed expectations, it will reinforce expectations for higher-for-longer interest rates, weighing on risk assets; if data comes in weak, it could ease rate hike concerns and, combined with the market’s oversold condition, trigger a阶段性 rebound.
In the short term, the crypto market stands at a crossroads of "macro uncertainty + technical oversold." If macro data and Fed communications signal a dovish tilt, the market may see a corrective rebound; conversely, if data proves strong or officials express hawkish leanings, Bitcoin could test downside support around $110,000.
