I built a Bitcoin buying system: $64,000, the lower the score, the more I buy

Author: Jake Pahor

Compiled by: TechFlow

TechFlow Editor's Note: Australian trader Jake Pahor reveals his real holdings: 100% Bitcoin, zero altcoins. This isn't faith, it's a choice made by an ordinary person with a full-time job and family after losing big in the last cycle — complex strategies require time costs, and Bitcoin beat almost all the altcoins he held last cycle. He uses the CSH scoring system for dynamic DCA, buying more when the score is lower, and exits are also hard-coded into the plan. The value of this system isn't in copying homework, but in letting you see clearly: only rules written during weekdays can withstand market sentiment at 11 PM at night.

Every SMSF (Self-Managed Super Fund) consultation ends the same way.

We finish the paperwork. Trust deeds, bank accounts, custody, audit records. All the stuff that keeps you out of trouble. Then there's a pause, and I know exactly what's coming next.

"So. Should I buy now? Should I wait? What exactly should I buy?"

I can't answer. Not unwilling. Just can't. The person asking might be 42 with twenty years left, or 68 with only three. They might sleep soundly through a 30% drawdown, or collapse at a 10% drop. No one can answer this for someone else, anyone who gives an answer is just guessing.

But now hundreds of people have asked me this question, which is why Tom and I created CSH. So this week I'm giving the only honest answer: how I actually operate my own money, and the system driving it. Not for you to copy. But to let you see what a system looks like, then build your own.

All content below runs on the free version of the app.

CSH Risk Dashboard

CSH Score: 25.6/100 — Early Cycle (Stable, +0.7 this week). In the bottom 22% of all readings since 2011, has stayed in the 20-30 range for 52 consecutive days.

Key Metrics:

BTC: $64,492 USD / $91,717 AUD (7-day: Basically flat)

BTC Dominance: 59.2%

ETH/BTC: 0.029

TOTAL3/BTC (Altcoins priced in Bitcoin): 0.37 — Bottoms in previous cycles hovered around 0.25

Fear & Greed Index: 26 - Fear

Total Market Cap: $2.27 Trillion

Review: Last issue I said three things must happen before this bear market ends, none happened. A week later, still zero out of three. The only notable change: BTC climbed back above the 200-week moving average (around $63,300). A necessary condition, far from sufficient.

Jake's Interpretation: Two weeks consolidating between approximately $62,000 to $66,000, score stayed in the 20s throughout. Boring chart, macro noise. My plan hasn't changed this week, that's the plan.

Figure: CSH Risk Score Dashboard, score 25.6/100, in early cycle, has stayed in the 20-30 range for 52 consecutive days. Source: Crypto Super Hub

How I Invest My Own Money

No title this week. The question above is more important than any news cycle, so here is my answer, three rules.

Rule One: Benchmark against two standards. I track my portfolio in two dimensions: USD and Bitcoin. The second number keeps me honest. If your altcoins double, but Bitcoin triples, you're actually losing. You just don't notice because you're only staring at the USD number. Fifteen years later, BTC is still the benchmark for the entire asset class. If I'm holding something else, it's because I genuinely believe it will outperform Bitcoin. Otherwise, why hold it?

Rule Two: Core first, recognize your limits. Right now I hold 100% Bitcoin. Zero altcoins. This isn't forever, just fits my life. I have a family, a full-time job at an exchange, and I'm building CSH in my spare time. Altcoin rotation is work prepared for people with time. I know because I tried it last cycle, held a bunch of altcoins without a plan, got blown up, while Bitcoin quietly outperformed almost all the coins I held. The lesson isn't that altcoins are bad. It's that my portfolio must fit my real life. Start with BTC as the core. Only add complexity when you have the time and skills to bear it.

Rule Three: Let the system buy. My money runs dynamic DCA through the CSH score. Buy according to plan, but only when the score is in my 10 to 30 range. Position size is dynamic: the lower the score, the more I buy. Moderate position building at score 30. Position at score 15 is several times the former. Every decision was made months ago when calm. The market can't renegotiate with me at 11 PM at night.

The same mechanism runs in reverse. My plan dynamically sells above the exit range. Last cycle, writing down the exit rules was the difference between realizing cycle gains and riding the rollercoaster back and forth. Bitcoin's life follows a rhythm very close to four years. I won't fight it based on feeling.

Where am I this week? Score 25.6, regular buying running within the range, larger positions still waiting for a below 20 that hasn't appeared yet. Two weeks intentionally did nothing new. Inaction is also a position, that's my position now.

Jake's Workbench

Big update this week: My Plan feature completely revamped. Email alerts live. You can set portfolio goals and watch them fill. Order logging takes just two clicks, portfolio view now shows your average buy price next to the real-time score. It's becoming the screen I check, not price.

This is my own plan, screenshot directly from the app:

Figure: Author's own DCA plan, bought 0.2279 BTC since end of June, average price 87,755 AUD, target 2 BTC. Source: Crypto Super Hub

Recorded three orders since end of June, bought 0.2279 BTC towards the 2 BTC target, average buy price 87,755 AUD. A quick explanation to avoid misreading this screen: This plan only tracks the portion I bought since launch a few weeks ago. This is a slice of my holdings, not all. But this is the system talked about in the section above, running publicly, records start accumulating from here.

Workbench next steps: CSV upload and exchange sync, making order logging simpler.

Altcoin season discussion is back. My feed is full of rotation calls. The metrics I watch say not yet: Altcoin market cap priced in BTC is at 0.37, bottoms in every cycle rush to around 0.25, only then do altcoins start running. Dominance is still rising, ETH/BTC is still flat. So: If someone pushes altcoin rotation to you this week, ask them what benchmark they're measuring against.

Figure: (TOTAL3 - USDT)/BTC trend, altcoin market cap priced in BTC 0.37, bottoms in previous cycles dipped to around 0.25. Source: Trading View

Fed meets Wednesday (US time). Probability of holding rates is about 85%, but whispers of rate hikes are getting louder. So: Unless your plan depends on next month's interest rates, this is noise. My plan doesn't depend on this.

Visa launches stablecoin platform, allowing banks to issue their own stablecoins without building infrastructure themselves. So: This is the meaning of a bear market. When no one is watching the market, infrastructure is being built.

Morgan Stanley opens BTC, ETH, and SOL spot trading for E*TRADE customers. So: Millions of ordinary brokerage accounts are now one click away from Bitcoin. The next wave of buyers won't come from Crypto Twitter. They will come from the screens they are already using.

Watch Next Week

FOMC Decision, 4 AM Thursday (AEST). Holding rates is basically priced in, so reaction will depend on wording. Expect two-way volatility. Volatility is not a signal.

200-week moving average, around $63,300. BTC is almost exactly on this line. Weekly close above or below this line is what the entire market is watching.

Below 20 points. This cycle still has zero days below 20. This is the trigger my larger buy positions are waiting for. If it appears, you will hear about it here first.

One question spawned the whole company: "Should I buy now?" The honest answer is never a date or a coin. It's a system that fits your life, matches your nerves, and was written before the market became noisy.

Mine is above. If you want to build your own, the score and plan builder are free.

I'm curious: Reply directly with a number, the percentage of Bitcoin in your current holdings. I will share the statistics next week.

See you next week.

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