Huobi Master Class | HTX Research Chief Analyst Andy: Deconstructing Q3 Crypto Market Investment Logic
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Huobi Master Class | HTX Research Chief Analyst Andy: Deconstructing Q3 Crypto Market Investment Logic
The real engine driving the market remains the improvement in global liquidity.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsOn July 20, Andy Liu, Head and Chief Analyst of HTX Research, appeared as a guest on the fifth episode of Huobi Master Class. With the theme "Q3 2026 Outlook: New Order of the Crypto Market Under Global Liquidity Repricing," he analyzed global liquidity repricing, structural changes in the crypto market, trends of core assets, and future investment opportunities.
As the guest speaker for this episode, Andy Liu has long been deeply involved in the crypto industry, possessing a composite background in investment management, institutional services, on-chain data analysis, and industry research. He is currently responsible for building the overall research system of HTX Research, covering multiple dimensions such as macro-market linkages, industry trends, and CEX asset strategy research.
Q2 Market Adjustment: Repricing Under Changes in Global Capital Costs
Reviewing the market performance in the second quarter of 2026, Andy stated that the Bitcoin price fell from a high of around $82,000 in mid-May to an interim low near $59,000 in June, with a maximum drawdown close to 24%. However, this was not "the end of the crypto industry cycle," but a concentrated repricing under the contraction of global USD liquidity.
Regarding the crypto market in Q3, Andy proposed three core judgments:
- Liquidity is more important than geopolitics: Short-term events may affect market sentiment, but what truly determines the trend are energy prices, inflation, Federal Reserve policies, and USD trends.
- Cash flow is more important than narratives: The market no longer pays for grand narratives and stacked TVL; protocols must have real revenue, burn mechanisms, and value capture mechanisms.
- Infrastructure is more important than price: Price corrections have not stopped infrastructure expansion. RWA, stablecoins, on-chain securities, AI Agent payments, and institutional compliance channels are still advancing. The long-term direction of Crypto is shifting from a native asset trading market to becoming part of the global financial infrastructure.
Comprehensive Analysis of Hot Assets: Where is Institutional Capital Flowing?
Regarding the performance of core crypto assets concerned by the market, Andy Liu conducted a one-by-one analysis of key sectors such as BTC, ETH, DeFi, and RWA, combining the liquidity environment, institutional capital allocation, and asset value capture capabilities.
BTC (Overweight), has become a global liquidity proxy variable: BTC is no longer just a crypto-native asset, but a core expression tool for global liquidity. The core variables in Q3 lie in whether spot ETF capital flows return to normal, as well as the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the Treasury's debt issuance pace. BTC remains the primary entry point for institutional allocation, possessing strong defensiveness and elasticity.
ETH (Neutral/Tactical Long), facing value capture challenges: Although Layer 2 has improved network efficiency, it has weakened mainnet fee revenue. ETH's current pain point lies in the fact that ecosystem growth has failed to effectively feed back into token value. ETH's valuation repair in Q3 needs to closely watch three catalysts: the rebound in L1 fees and burn volume, net inflows of ETF funds, and positive stimulation from regulatory implementation. DeFi (Selective Overweight on Leaders), entering the cash flow era: The era of valuing based solely on TVL (Total Value Locked) is past. "Quality DeFi" with real revenue inflow mechanisms, strong risk isolation capabilities, and deep integration with compliant capital will be revalued.
RWA (Continuous Overweight), a structural main line crossing cycles: In a high-interest-rate environment, RWA assets such as tokenized US Treasury bonds provide a natural yield exit for on-chain capital. Its growth does not depend on bull market sentiment, but on real institutional compliant allocation demands, making it one of the most deterministic sectors currently.
Long-tail Altcoins (Underweight): Against the background of insufficient stablecoin expansion, high unlocking pressure, and limited liquidity, long-tail altcoins lack the foundation for a comprehensive explosion.
Andy summarized that the Crypto market in Q3 will not be driven by a single narrative, but will be jointly determined by two main lines—whether global liquidity improves marginally, and whether regulatory certainty is sufficient to reopen institutional risk budgets.
Regulation Shifts from Risk Discount to Market Catalyst
Regarding regulatory trends, Andy believes that in the past few years, regulation was more often viewed by the market as a risk factor, affecting asset valuations with a risk discount. However, as the industry gradually matures, regulatory certainty is becoming a new market catalytic factor.
He emphasized that what the market cares about is not the looser the regulation the better, but whether the rules are clear. "The clearer the rules, the easier it is for institutions to judge which assets and businesses can enter the balance sheet."
In the Q3 market outlook, Andy believes that regulatory progress is of higher importance for assets such as Ethereum, DeFi, stablecoins, and RWA. Compared to Bitcoin, which already has ETFs and mature institutional entry points, these fields may have greater regulatory improvement elasticity in the future.
At the end of the live broadcast, Andy concluded this lecture with one sentence: "The market in Q3 will not reward all risks; it will only reward risks that have liquidity support, real cash flow, and a clear regulatory path."
Hot Q&A: ETFs, the Four-Year Cycle Theory, and the "Dilemma of Altcoins"
During the interactive session of the live broadcast, Andy provided in-depth answers to several market phenomena that the audience cared about most:
- Regarding "Success via ETF, Failure via ETF": Addressing the significant volatility of Bitcoin recently affected by ETF fund outflows, Andy believes that ETFs are not the sole determining factor of the market trend, but rather a "trend amplifier." The addition of ETFs amplifies Bitcoin's sensitivity to macro liquidity, allowing traditional institutions to adjust positions quickly. The true engine of the market trend remains the improvement of global liquidity. At the same time, the inflow of ETF funds does not represent blind long positions; it includes a large amount of basis trading and hedging operations.
- Regarding whether the "Four-Year Cycle Theory" is invalid: Andy believes that the "halving cycle" once every four years has not become invalid, but it has changed from an "iron law" to a "reference for supply rhythm." Nowadays, the Bitcoin stock is extremely large, and it has been deeply integrated into the global asset allocation system. Only when the "supply contraction of the halving cycle" and the "liquidity cycle of USD expansion" form a resonance will a super bull market erupt.
- Revealing the truth behind "Altcoin Liquidity Dry-up": Why has the stablecoin market cap hit a new high recently, but the vast majority of altcoins are continuing to decline steadily? Andy pointed out four reasons succinctly: First, institutional capital enters BTC through ETFs and no longer rotates down to altcoins as in the past; second, the usage scenarios of stablecoins have greatly expanded (such as cross-border payments, RWA), so stablecoin issuance does not equal "queuing to buy altcoins"; third, the supply of altcoins is extremely high, facing huge unlocking pressure and early investor exit issues; finally, the market has developed immunity to "narrative coins" without real value capture.
Huobi Master Class is a long-term education column created by Huobi Growth Academy, aiming to invite top global scholars, industry leaders, and senior practitioners to conduct in-depth exchanges around frontier fields such as the crypto industry, artificial intelligence, and Web3, helping users understand the underlying logic behind market trends and establish an independent thinking framework.
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