Mysterious Whale Bets $2.5 Billion BTC Will Break Above $72,000 in August, $70,000 Level Becomes Key
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
Mysterious Whale Bets $2.5 Billion BTC Will Break Above $72,000 in August, $70,000 Level Becomes Key
Whether this high-stakes gamble pays off depends on whether the demand surge following the Fed decision can withstand these resistance levels.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Liam 'Akiba' Wright
Compiled by: TechFlow
TechFlow Insights: An anonymous trader bought 20,000 $70,000 call options on Deribit and simultaneously sold 20,000 $72,000 call options, with a total notional value of $2.5 billion, expiring on July 31—two days after the Fed interest rate meeting. Current Bitcoin price is $64,289, meaning he is betting Bitcoin will surge 9% to break the $70,000 level within 10 days. However, ETF fund flows are fluctuating, on-chain cost basis shows $69,000 is still the buyer's defense line; whether this gamble pays off depends on whether the demand surge after the Fed decision can withstand these resistance levels.
Deribit's July 31 options board shows over 20,000 Bitcoin call option contracts concentrated at the two strike prices of $70,000 and $72,000.
These two strike prices are the largest call option concentration points for this expiration date. Exchange data at the time of publishing shows approximately 27,000 contracts at $70,000 and about 21,000 contracts at $72,000. Bitcoin's current price is near $64,289, with the lower strike price about 8.9% higher than the spot price.
Deribit Chief Commercial Officer Jean-David Péquignot told CoinDesk that a large trade involved buying 20,000 call options expiring on July 31 with a strike price of $70,000, while simultaneously selling the same quantity of call options with a strike price of $72,000.
Exchange data concentration independently confirms large positions exist at these two strike prices, constituting a 20,000 vs 20,000 bull call spread.
Based on this structure, calculated at the current Bitcoin price, the total notional value of the two legs is approximately $2.5 billion. Premiums paid, capital invested, and net exposure are metrics different from this figure.
These options will expire two days after the Fed's next policy decision. Strike price concentration, expiration date, and spot price gap jointly define Bitcoin's tactical test in the last few days of July.
A Spread Trade Within Larger Option Concentration
Under the reported structure, the $70,000 call options provide upside exposure above the lower strike price at expiration, while selling the same quantity of $72,000 call options reduces cost and caps further gains. The resulting bull call spread reaches maximum profit once Bitcoin reaches or exceeds the higher strike price at expiration.
This structure can express a directional view, hedge another option position, or hedge separate exposure. Deribit's open interest chart and the reported block trade do not identify the counterparty's broader portfolio, so this position speaks most clearly through its capped gains and short-term expiration.
CryptoSlate's review of option positions on July 17 found approximately $4.5 billion in call option open interest between $70,000 and $80,000. Open interest calculates the number of outstanding contracts; direction depends on how calls are bought, sold, and combined with the rest of the portfolio. This concentration highlights price regions rather than turning every contract into an identical bullish bet.
An independent prediction market snapshot on July 20 showed a 14.5% probability of Bitcoin touching $70,000 this month, and a 4.1% probability of touching $72,500. The $67,500 threshold was 34.5%, while downside touch of $62,500 was 67.4%.
Each threshold is an independent, non-exclusive binary event, so Bitcoin can trigger multiple ones in a volatile month. These contracts measure whether a certain level is touched at any time in July.
The spread's profit is related to its July 31 expiration structure. Therefore, these percentages provide broader market context but answer different questions than the spread.
Fed Timing Makes Demand the July Test
The Fed's official calendar schedules the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting for July 28 and 29. The policy decision is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on July 29, followed by a press conference at 2:30 PM. The call spread will expire on July 31.
The Fed decision falls in the final stage of the trade. From Bitcoin's price on July 20, entering the $70,000 to $72,000 range still requires breaking through the $69,000 region, where recent buying and selling are concentrated.
CryptoSlate's on-chain analysis on July 19 set the cost basis test point for recent buyers near $69,000, when Bitcoin was below that level. The same analysis identified $52,891 as a conditional lower stress boundary if weak demand persists. Both levels change as the coin trades, making them moving reference points rather than fixed destinations.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows provide a second test of demand. Farside's daily tables recorded net inflows of $197 million from July 6 to 10, and net inflows of $75 million from July 13 to 17, totaling $272 million. One trading day produced outflows of $424 million, showing how quickly a brief positive run can reverse.
ETF buyers still added $272 million over two weeks, but the single-day outflow of $424 million shows how quickly this support can disappear. A sustained breakout in the $69,000 to $70,000 region along with more stable inflows would provide broader confirmation for the call spread. Continued failure in this region would make the trade an isolated tactical position before expiration.
Longer-Term Forecasts Run on Different Clocks
Digital asset financial services company NYDIG stated on July 10 that matching the duration of the previous two major cycle corrections, plus a shallower decline of about 70%, could imply potential lows around $38,000 to $39,000 in early October.
Coinbase's institutional department analysis on July 3 identified $58,000 to $59,000 as the first high-intensity support zone, followed by $48,000 to $50,000, around $42,000, and $39,000 to $40,000 (if higher levels fail). Its July 6 position report described end-of-June positions as washed out, with option skew leaning towards downside protection. Both articles were before the July 18 call spread flow, providing earlier risk benchmarks.
Citi lowered its 12-month Bitcoin target from $112,000 to $82,000 and set a $53,000 bear case scenario, conditional on economic recession and continued ETF outflows. Citi also lowered its assumed 12-month ETF net inflows from $10 billion to zero. In two other outlooks, Standard Chartered retained its end-of-2026 target of $100,000, while Bernstein retained its explicitly ambitious end-of-year target of $150,000.
These figures cover early October cycle scenarios, conditional support zones, 12-month bank targets, and end-of-year targets.
July's decision tree is shorter: spot must cover the 8.9% gap to $70,000, absorb selling near recent buyers' cost basis, and do so against the backdrop of uneven ETF fund flows.
Bitcoin is up 0.80% in the past 24 hours and currently ranks #1 by market cap.
Where the Broader Market Stands Now
Currently, the total cryptocurrency market value is $2.23 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $69.65 billion. Bitcoin dominance is 58.73%.
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
@CryptoSlate
