Bitget UEX Daily | US Media Reports US-Iran Halt Mutual Strikes; South Korean Chip Giant Announces Trillion Investment Plan; AI Application Software Sector Surges
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Bitget UEX Daily | US Media Reports US-Iran Halt Mutual Strikes; South Korean Chip Giant Announces Trillion Investment Plan; AI Application Software Sector Surges
Overall, institutions remain optimistic about the medium-to-long-term outlook for leading US tech stocks and the semiconductor supply chain, maintain a neutral-to-bullish stance on precious metals, and recommend cautious allocation for crypto assets while monitoring the key support level at $59,000.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insights
I. Hot News
Federal Reserve Dynamics
Gavekal: Probability of Trump Pressuring Fed Leading to Runaway Inflation Low
- Institutions point out that Kevin Warsh serving as Fed Chair and the reappointment of 11 regional Fed presidents have significantly reduced market concerns about damage to monetary policy independence; the Fed meeting earlier this month emphasized commitment to price stability, surprising market participants who previously expected a more dovish stance.
- The report emphasizes that in 2025, the market worried about Trump nominating political puppets to force rate cuts and push up inflation, but developments over the past seven months have significantly decreased the probability of this scenario.
- Market Impact: This view supports stability of the USD and US Treasury yields, reduces extreme policy risk premium, forming neutral to positive support for risk assets.
International Commodities
US & Iran Agree to Stop Mutual Attacks, Doha Meeting in Qatar This Week Focuses on Strait of Hormuz
- According to AXIOS, US senior officials confirmed that the US and Iran have agreed to stop all military actions, planning to meet in Doha, the capital of Qatar, on Tuesday to resolve related disputes; previously, Trump threatened on June 27 that if Iran violated the ceasefire again, the US might use military means to "complete the mission," and the Islamic Republic of Iran would cease to exist.
- Iranian FM Araghchi stated that within the next 30 days, the Strait of Hormuz will be fully supervised and managed by Iran; originally scheduled Swiss technical negotiations stalled due to recent conflicts, and Iranian officials were absent from the 28th negotiations.
- Market Impact: Obvious signals of easing geopolitical tensions are good for risk assets, oil prices are under pressure to decline, safe-haven demand for gold etc. fluctuates intensively in the short term but overall risk appetite rebounds.
Stock Market
South Korea Announces Samsung & SK "Three Major Projects" Investment Plan Today, Scale May Exceed $650 Billion
- President Lee Jae-myung will speak at the Blue House this afternoon, and four departments including the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy will simultaneously announce policies and investment announcements; Samsung Electronics and SK are expected to release corporate investment plans exceeding 1000 trillion KRW (approx. $650 billion) for the next 10 years, possibly including chip cluster development in the southwestern Honam region.
- This move was called a "historic achievement" by Lee Jae-myung, aiming to consolidate South Korea's key position in the global AI chip supply chain.
- Market Impact: Global semiconductor and AI infrastructure related supply chain assets are expected to gain long-term catalysts, beneficial for US tech sector and related ETF fund flows.
II. Market Review
Commodities & FX Performance (Real-time Update)
- Spot Gold: Approx. $4056/oz, -0.76%
- Spot Silver: Approx. $58.9/oz, -1.38%
- WTI Crude: Approx. $70.1/barrel, +1.4%
- Brent Crude: Approx. $73.4/barrel, +1.2%
- Dollar Index (DXY): Approx. 101.34 points, -0.03%
Driver Analysis: US & Iran agree to stop mutual attacks and turn to Qatar meeting, Strait of Hormuz reopening prospects improve, directly alleviating oil market supply tension concerns, WTI and Brent both under pressure. Gold and Silver rose slightly under the dual effects of rebounding risk appetite and Fed policy independence being affirmed, US Dollar Index fell slightly. Institutions believe that although geopolitical easing is good for risk assets, inflation and Fed stance still support precious metals, oil prices easy to fall hard to rise in short term, precious metals maintain range oscillation strong pattern. Asset linkage logic is clear: Oil down -> Inflation pressure eased -> Rate cut expectations micro rise -> USD under pressure -> Gold supported.
Crypto Performance
- BTC: Approx. $59575, -1%
- ETH: Approx. $1570, -0.31%
- Total Crypto Market Cap: Approx. $2.13 trillion, -1.2%
- Market Liquidation Situation: 24h total liquidation approx. $184 million, long liquidation approx. $148 million
- Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current BTC price approx. $59,639, large amount of short liquidation positions gathered in the $60,200–$61,000 range above, if breaking through $60k integer level, may trigger concentrated short stop-loss, pushing price further up. Long liquidations below mainly concentrated in $58,000–$59,000, cumulative scale significantly smaller than short liquidation pressure above, liquidation map overall still presents structure of denser liquidity above, short-term biased towards upper liquidity attraction.
- Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: Last Friday close, BTC Spot ETF single day net outflow approx. $445 million.
Driver Analysis: Geopolitical easing boosts overall risk appetite, but Fed independence affirmed by institutions and continuous ETF net outflow pressure since June, prevented BTC from rebounding effectively. Leverage liquidation data significantly reduced compared to earlier period, showing high leverage positions have been cleaned to some extent, market enters relative low volatility repair phase. Technically, long/short game fierce near $59300, dense short order area above may become short-term resistance, if $58000 support below lost may trigger new chain liquidation. Overall trend still needs to wait for ETF flows and macro data to further confirm direction.
US Stock Index Performance
- Dow Jones: 51,876.11 points (-0.09%)
- S&P 500: 7,354.02 points (-0.05%)
- Nasdaq: 25,297.62 points (-0.24%)
Tech Giants Dynamics
- NVDA: $192.53, -1.64%
- AAPL: $283.78, +3.14%
- MSFT: $372.97, +5.71%
- GOOGL: $337.39, -1.84%
- AMZN: $232.69, +2.50%
- META: $550.25, +1.36%
- TSLA: $379.71, +1.22%
- MU: $1,132.33, -6.69%
- SPCX: $153.23, +0.15%
Performance Summary & Driver Analysis: Tech sector showed obvious divergence characteristics on Friday, not driven by single macro factor. MSFT, AAPL, AMZN and other weighted stocks recorded significant gains, mainly boosted by continued strong AI cloud service demand and some company-specific 利好 (positive news); NVDA, MU (-7%), AMD and other semiconductor stocks pulled back due to profit-taking and supply cycle concerns. Although geopolitical easing is good for overall risk appetite, chip sector internal competition and valuation pressure still dominate individual stock trends, avoid "one-size-fits-all" attribution to macro. Divergence pattern expected to continue in short term, AI application and infrastructure leaders relatively resilient.
Crypto Market Stock Contracts Overview
- 24H Total Turnover: $3.441 billion (+92.31%)
- Total Open Interest (OI): $5.523 billion (+3.68%)
- 24H Total Liquidation: $5.6186 million
- Turnover Ratio: 3.23%
- Position Ratio: 5.44%
- Liquidation Ratio: 3.05%
Position Heatmap
- SPCX Positions $710 million.
- MU Positions $556 million.
- SKHX Positions $530 million.
- SNDK Positions $283 million.
- NVDA Positions $242 million.
- INTC Positions $150 million.
- MRVL Positions $129 million.
- GOOGL Positions $108 million.
- MSFT Positions $105 million.
- CRCL Positions $101 million.
Sector Movement Observation
Semiconductor Sector fell over 5%
- Representative Stocks: MU -7%, AMD -2%, NVDA -2%
- Drivers: Friday profit-taking pressure concentrated release, coupled with market concerns about AI chip supply surplus and intensified competition, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell sharply simultaneously.
AI Application Software Sector rose together (some stocks up 8-10%)
- Representative Stocks: NOW, SNOW up nearly 10%, WDAY +9%, DDOG +8%
- Drivers: AI enterprise adoption continues to advance, cloud service and data analysis demand remain strong, capital replenished high prosperity track after pullback.
Crypto Concept Stocks mostly rose
- Representative Stocks: HOOD +6%, COIN, HUT +4%
- Drivers: Geopolitical easing boosts risk appetite, coupled with Cathie Wood's ARK buying COIN and other targets heavily, driving related concept stocks rebound.
III. US Stock Individual Deep Dive
1. Microsoft- AI Cloud Service Demand Continues to Drive Friday's Big Rise
Event Overview: Friday MSFT recorded approx. 5.71% gain, far exceeding 大盘 (broad market), mainly driven by continued strong AI related cloud service and enterprise solution demand. Market interprets as AI capital expenditure cycle still accelerating, Azure growth prospects further confirmed. Market Interpretation: Institutions generally believe MSFT's dual layout in AI infrastructure and application layer makes it possess strong defensiveness and offensiveness in current environment, capital replenishment willingness strong after recent pullback. Investment Implication: Short term focus on Azure AI related data updates, medium term still core technology configuration variety.
2. Micron (MU) - Semiconductor Cycle Volatility Triggers Sharp Pullback
Event Overview: MU fell nearly 7% on Friday, dragging down semiconductor sector overall performance. Market attributes this to profit-taking after previous gains too large, and phased concerns about AI chip supply rhythm and downstream demand match degree. Market Interpretation: Institution views diverged, some think this is healthy pullback, HBM and storage demand still has support medium-long term; other voices warn need to be alert to short-term inventory and pricing pressure. Investment Implication: Suitable for high risk appetite investors to layout in batches near support levels, strictly set stop-loss.
3. Coinbase (COIN) - ARK Invest Big Buy Boosts Market Confidence
Event Overview: Cathie Wood's ARK Invest spent approx. $10.19 million buying COIN stock on June 26, simultaneously also bought SpaceX, Circle and other targets. Market Interpretation: This move is seen as expression of confidence by well-known growth investors in crypto infrastructure and compliant platforms, has certain signal significance under background of ETF outflows. Investment Implication: Short term can be observed as sentiment indicator, long term still need to track regulation and adoption rate actual progress.
IV. Views & Market Dynamics
1. US House Speaker Mike Johnson stated, housing bill containing CBDC temporary ban (until 2030) will be sent to President Trump on Monday and signed into law. Previously June 24 news, Trump refused to sign bill containing US CBDC ban, forcing progress on election bill.
2. Arthur Hayes posted on X platform, still bullish on Hyperliquid ecosystem, but need to seek more asymmetric opportunities, time for an options DEX to truly challenge Deribit, and Hypercall (SYN) is such a challenger, expect it to achieve something. Previously news, Arthur Hayes bought 6.16 million SYN from FlowDesk, approx. $2.2 million.
3. A US senior official said, US and Iran have agreed to stop mutual attacks, both parties plan to meet in Doha, capital of Qatar, on Tuesday, to resolve disputes regarding Strait of Hormuz. Previously, just 11 days after ceasefire memo signed, both parties launched attacks again, and Trump threatened to restart war and "complete the mission", situation was precarious.
4. Bitcoin advocate Samson Mow stated on social platform, he believes bottom of this Bitcoin cycle has formed, and points out traditional "four-year halving cycle" is being broken, market rhythm has obviously accelerated. He mentioned Bitcoin created all-time high 37 days before April 2024 halving, showing cycle law is accelerating changes, even admitting cycle model has reference significance, should re-evaluate its effectiveness, and as spot ETF brings continuous institutional fund inflows, Bitcoin market structure has changed, traditional methods judging tops and bottoms based on historical halving cycles are distorting, therefore current price range already has cycle bottom characteristics.
However, currently market views still obviously diverged, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen believes Bitcoin bottom more likely to appear around $55k region, time window may be August to October; BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes expects Bitcoin may dive to approx. $40k level in coming months; CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten points out, from long-term indicators like 200-week moving average, Bitcoin may still need to fall further approx. 15%+ to complete final bottoming, current $50k to $54k range may become key long/short battle zone, overall market has not formed consistent judgment on whether bottomed.
5. Framework Ventures co-founder Michael Anderson stated, next stage crypto industry core opportunities may no longer be limited to crypto assets themselves, but become financing infrastructure for capital-intensive industries like AI, Robotics and Energy. Tokenization and Stablecoins are evolving from crypto-native apps to financial infrastructure serving real economy, can be used to provide more efficient financing channels for GPU computing power, energy projects and other assets. Compared to 2020–2021 cycle centered on DeFi and crypto speculation, current industry is turning to "Real World Financing & Infrastructure Construction", blockchain is upgrading from trading application layer to cross-industry capital network. He emphasized, current stage may mark crypto industry structural shift from "Speculation-driven" to "Infrastructure-driven".
V. Today's Market Calendar
Important Event Preview
- South Korea Chip Investment Plan Release: This afternoon - Focus on Samsung and SK specific investment scale and regional layout details
Institutional Views:
Comprehensive 24h US-Iran geopolitical easing, South Korea major investment plan landing and Fed independence affirmed by institutions background, most investment banks and research institutions believe short-term risk asset environment marginally improved. Geopolitical tension cooling directly benefits oil price fall and stock market risk appetite rebound, South Korea trillion-level chip investment provides long-term catalyst for global semiconductor and AI supply chain. Fed policy independence expectation stable, reduced extreme inflation or policy loss of control tail risk, supports USD and Treasuries. However, crypto market still faces ETF continuous net outflow and leverage cleanup confidence repair pressure, BTC short term may maintain range oscillation. Overall, institutions remain optimistic about US tech leaders and semiconductor supply chain medium-long term prospects, neutral to bullish on precious metals, suggest cautious configuration for crypto assets and watch $59000 key support. Short-term trading strategy should follow geopolitical and macro data marginal changes, control position and leverage.
Disclaimer: Above content organized by AI search, manual verification only for publication, not any investment advice. Data in text inevitably has deviations, please refer to market instant data.
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