Where’s the promised “big year” for crypto IPOs? Only one has gone public in six months—and it’s down 70%.
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
Where’s the promised “big year” for crypto IPOs? Only one has gone public in six months—and it’s down 70%.
With only five months remaining until the November midterm elections, the window for crypto companies to go public is narrowing.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Claude, TechFlow
TechFlow Introduction: SpaceX will price its IPO tonight and begin trading on Nasdaq tomorrow, raising $75 billion with a valuation of $1.75 trillion—the largest IPO in history. Meanwhile, the crypto IPO pipeline has frozen entirely: BitGo, the only crypto company to go public this year, has plunged nearly 70% below its offering price; Kraken’s valuation has shrunk by 33% in five months; Consensys has postponed its listing to fall; and Bitpanda is almost certain to miss its deadline. With just five months remaining until the November midterm elections, the window for crypto companies to go public is rapidly narrowing.
After today’s U.S. market close, SpaceX will finalize its offering price. Tomorrow, its ticker symbol “SPCX” will debut on Nasdaq. According to Reuters, the company plans to issue approximately 557 million shares at $135 per share, raising $75 billion and achieving a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This IPO will set a new record—both in terms of proceeds raised and valuation—surpassing the previous record holder, Saudi Aramco, by more than double.
Outside this feast, however, the crypto IPO queue is falling apart.
SpaceX Siphons Liquidity as Bitcoin Drops Below $60,000
SpaceX’s IPO timeline is unusually fast: it confidentially filed its registration statement on April 1, publicly released its S-1 prospectus on May 20, and launched its roadshow on June 4—several days ahead of schedule due to unexpectedly swift SEC review. From confidential filing to listing, the process took just over two months.
Crypto markets moved in precisely the opposite direction during this same window. According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin traded around $61,500 on June 10—a weekly decline of roughly 17%, briefly dipping below $60,000 for the first time since 2024. The Fear & Greed Index stood at 9, indicating “extreme fear.” Total crypto market capitalization shrank to approximately $2.21 trillion. The explanation for capital flows is straightforward: Bitcoin ETFs continued bleeding assets, while funds rotated toward AI stocks and the SpaceX IPO, leaving risk appetite fully drained by this $1.75-trillion behemoth.
Liquidity is oxygen for any company seeking a public listing. With $75 billion in subscription demand locked up by SpaceX alone, filing an IPO prospectus at this moment is akin to flying a kite in a typhoon.
BitGo: The Year’s Sole Listing—and Its Stock Has Fallen ~70%
The crypto industry hasn’t been idle. BitGo listed on the NYSE on January 22 at an offering price of $18—above its $15–$17 price range—and raised $213 million, becoming the first—and so far only—crypto-native company to complete an IPO in 2026.
The start looked promising: its opening price was $22.43, up 24.6% from the offering price, and it peaked intraday at $24.50. Yet that gain evaporated the same day, closing with just a 2.7% rise. Since then, the stock has declined steadily. According to Benzinga, BTGO closed at $5.61 on June 3—down roughly 69% from its offering price. On June 4, Goldman Sachs slashed its target price from $10.50 to $9.00—even that revised target remains 60% above the current share price.
BitGo was originally expected to serve as a bellwether for crypto IPOs in 2026. It has indeed become one—but pointing in the opposite direction. When Kraken paused its listing in March, multiple media outlets cited BitGo’s post-IPO collapse as a cautionary case for management teams. If even a defensive infrastructure firm—holding over $100 billion in assets under custody—has fared so poorly, prospective exchange-focused listings know exactly what pricing to expect in the secondary market.
Kraken: Valuation Down 33% in Five Months; Deutsche Börse Steps In
Kraken has progressed furthest among the group. On November 19, 2025, its parent company Payward confidentially submitted an S-1 draft to the SEC, shortly after closing an $800 million funding round led by Jane Street and Citadel Securities, valuing the company at $20 billion. At the time, Reuters reported Kraken aimed to list in Q1 2026.
Then the market turned. In March, multiple outlets reported Kraken had frozen its listing plans. On April 14, Co-CEO Arjun Sethi confirmed at the Semafor World Economic Summit in Washington that the confidential filing remained valid—but refused to disclose a timetable, offering size, or valuation range. According to Semafor, Kraken’s valuation fell to $13.3 billion in an April financing round—down 33% from its November 2025 peak.
A notable detail emerged from that round: Deutsche Börse Group acquired roughly 1.5% of Kraken’s fully diluted equity for $200 million, with the deal expected to close in Q2. The operator of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange stepped in to acquire a stake in a U.S.-based exchange at its lowest valuation point. Combined with Bitpanda’s trajectory (discussed below), Germany’s intent to seize business opportunities as the U.S. window tightens becomes unmistakable.
Media consensus currently expects Kraken’s relaunch to occur no earlier than H2.
Consensys Pushed to Fall; Bitpanda Almost Certain to Slip
Consensys—the MetaMask parent company—follows a simpler script. As reported by CoinDesk on May 13, the firm, led by Ethereum co-founder Joe Lubin, had planned to confidentially file its S-1 with the SEC by late February, with JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs serving as lead underwriters. But amid persistently weak market conditions, the listing has been postponed to at least this fall. Consensys’s last valuation came in its 2022 Series D round—$450 million raised at a $7 billion valuation. How much of that figure holds up in today’s market won’t be clear until its prospectus goes public.
Bitpanda’s challenge is purely calendrical. According to a Bloomberg report in January, the Vienna-based firm—backed by Peter Thiel—plans to list in Frankfurt, targeting a $4–5 billion valuation (€4–5 billion), with Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Deutsche Bank acting as underwriters, aiming for a first-half listing, potentially as early as Q1. Today is June 11—less than three weeks remain in H1—and the company has yet to officially announce a date. Unless it suddenly launches within the next few days, slipping past its self-imposed deadline is virtually guaranteed.
Viewing all four together: one listed but collapsed ~70%; one filed but paused; one pushed to fall; one about to miss its own deadline. A Reddit post originally described these four firms as “racing to go public within 12 months”—technically accurate, but directionally wrong. This isn’t a race; it’s each company searching for its own exit ramp.
Five Months Until Midterms
The clustering of crypto IPOs in 2026 shares a common, invisible deadline.
Regulatory sentiment toward crypto has been relatively favorable this year—but the U.S. midterm elections in early November could shift the balance of power in Congress. Many companies deliberately scheduled their listings before the election, betting on policy certainty over these five months.
Precedents offer little encouragement. Among crypto firms that went public in 2025, Gemini’s stock fell over 60% below its offering price (as of end-January data); Bullish has traded near its offering price; and Coinbase—listed in 2021—still trades below its IPO opening price. Circle stands out as one of the few exceptions, significantly outperforming its offering price. Secondary-market pricing, backed by real money, speaks more honestly than any roadshow presentation.
Returning to that Reddit post, one of the poster’s arguments actually holds water: once exchanges go public, their financial books are no longer black boxes—quarterly audited reports will reveal whether revenue stems from trading fees, custody services, or interest on idle funds. For the first time, retail investors can judge an exchange based on numbers—not just “how smoothly withdrawals work.”
The problem lies in sequencing. Transparency is an outcome of going public—not its driving force. In a market where Bitcoin trades at $61,500 and the sole listed crypto company has collapsed ~70%, no company is rushing to lay its cards on the table.
Over the next five months, three concrete milestones merit close attention: whether Kraken relaunches its IPO in H2; whether Consensys actually files its S-1 this fall; and when Bitpanda formally acknowledges its delay.
One additional variable will be revealed tomorrow. If SpaceX’s IPO draws in capital and liquidity rebounds, the window may reopen—just slightly. If even the largest IPO in history performs tepidly, then the 2026 crypto IPO wave will likely need to wait until after the elections.
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
深潮TechFlow
