Bitget UEX Daily Report | Trump Halts Crackdown to Facilitate Negotiations; Goldman Sachs Forecasts Rate Cuts, AI Productivity Emerges as Core Driver of Stock Market; Walsh Assumes Office on Friday
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Bitget UEX Daily Report | Trump Halts Crackdown to Facilitate Negotiations; Goldman Sachs Forecasts Rate Cuts, AI Productivity Emerges as Core Driver of Stock Market; Walsh Assumes Office on Friday
Overall, the market is shifting its focus from geopolitical events to corporate fundamentals, with AI remaining the central theme.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsI. Top News
Federal Reserve Developments: Trump to Personally Host Walsh’s Swearing-In Ceremony, Highlighting Control Over Fed Appointments
- Trump will host the swearing-in ceremony for incoming Federal Reserve Chair Philip N. Walsh at the White House this Friday—breaking with recent precedent of internal Fed-led ceremonies.
- Current Chair Jerome Powell’s term concluded last weekend; he will remain on the Board of Governors until January 2028.
- This move intensifies market focus on Trump’s influence over Fed policy. In the short term, it may heighten policy uncertainty; in the longer term, personnel stability could aid market digestion.
Global Commodities: Trump Halts Military Strike Against Iran, Easing Middle East Tensions and Pressuring Oil Prices Downward
- On Monday, Trump announced a postponement of the planned Tuesday strike against Iran, citing requests from Middle Eastern leaders and stating “serious negotiations are underway”—suggesting a potential return to diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Iran.
- Earlier tensions in the Strait of Hormuz had pushed Brent crude briefly above $110/barrel; prices retreated following the announcement.
- Market sentiment turned more optimistic, with Asian morning oil prices declining—but geopolitical risk still poses upside pressure.
Macroeconomic Policy: Goldman Sachs Pushes Back Rate-Cut Expectations, Emphasizing AI-Driven Productivity Gains as Key Equity Driver
- In its latest outlook, Goldman Sachs delayed its projected timing for rate cuts, acknowledging macroeconomic headwinds but underscoring AI-driven productivity improvements as the core long-term equity market support.
- Despite rising long-dated Treasury yields, semiconductor and AI-related stocks have not entered irrational exuberance territory.
- This view shifts market focus from near-term interest-rate dynamics toward corporate earnings prospects—favoring long-term allocation to tech growth equities.
II. Market Recap
Commodities & FX Performance
- Spot Gold: +0.05%, trading at $4,570/oz.
- Spot Silver: +0.48%, trading at $78/oz.
- WTI Crude: −1.94%, trading at $102/barrel.
- Brent Crude: −2.53%, trading at $109/barrel.
- U.S. Dollar Index: +0.09%, at 999.071.
Cryptocurrency Performance
- BTC: +0.23%, trading near $77,200; short-term focus remains on key support levels.
- ETH: +0.53%, trading near $2,137.
- Total Crypto Market Cap: +0.2%, at $2.66 trillion.
- Liquidations: ~$308 million liquidated in the past 24 hours, including $205 million in long positions.
- Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: BTC is currently trading near $77,166. Dense liquidation zones lie between $77,800–$78,500—indicating significant stop-loss orders and highly leveraged short positions above current price. A breakout upward risks triggering cascading short liquidations. Conversely, the $75,500–$76,500 zone holds concentrated long liquidation points; a break below current support could trigger a rush of long liquidations and accelerate downside toward $76,000.
- Spot ETF Net Flows: BTC spot ETFs saw $200 million net outflow yesterday; ETH spot ETFs recorded a continued $28.8 million outflow.
- BTC Flows: $285 million net inflow into BTC spot markets yesterday; $200 million net inflow into BTC futures markets.
U.S. Equity Index Performance
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.32%, at 49,686.12—showing relatively steady momentum, supported by energy and financials.
- S&P 500: −0.07%, at 7,403.05—trading in narrow range.
- Nasdaq Composite: −0.51%, at 26,090.73—down for two consecutive days amid tech sector pressure.
Tech Giants’ Moves
- NVIDIA (NVDA): −1.33% at $222.32—robust AI memory demand persists, though broader sector weakened.
- Google (GOOGL): +0.04% at $396.94—relatively resilient.
- Apple (AAPL): −0.80% at $297.84—iOS 27 AI features expected soon.
- Microsoft (MSFT): +0.38% at $421.92—steady performance.
- Amazon (AMZN): +0.27% at $264.86—modest gain.
- Broadcom (AVGO): −1.05% to −3% at $425.19—dragged down by chip sector weakness.
- Meta (META): −0.49% at $611.21—aligned with broader market correction.
- Tesla (TSLA): −2.90% at $409.99—SpaceX spin-off news potentially diverting attention.
Sector Watch: Memory/Chip Stocks Drop >2–5%
- Key names: Seagate (STX) −6.87%; Micron (MU) −5.95%.
- Catalysts: CEO comments indicating reluctance to build new factories raised capacity concerns; rising Treasury yields added pressure on tech stocks.
III. Deep Dive: U.S. Equity Analysis
1. NVIDIA (NVDA) – Memory Demand Outstrips Supply; Vera CPU Delivery Overview: During an interview with Bloomberg at Dell World, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang stated that AI-driven memory demand has already surpassed existing production capacity—and infrastructure buildout speed over the next decade will face immense challenges. Meanwhile, NVIDIA’s in-house CPU, Vera, has completed its first deliveries to Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX AI, and Oracle Cloud. Designed specifically for Agentic AI workloads, Vera is positioned as NVIDIA’s next multi-billion-dollar business line; Oracle plans to deploy hundreds of thousands of Vera CPUs starting in 2026. The broader Vera Rubin platform comprises seven breakthrough chips operating under a liquid-cooled MGX architecture, delivering significantly higher inference throughput and markedly lower costs versus prior generations. Market Interpretation: Institutions broadly view Vera as highly promising for the Agentic AI era, reinforcing NVIDIA’s strategic advantage in expanding from GPUs to full-stack AI infrastructure—and further enhancing long-term order visibility. Investment Insight: Long-term AI infrastructure demand remains highly certain; investors should monitor pricing power and ecosystem expansion amid ongoing supply constraints.
2. Seagate Technology (STX) – CEO’s Reluctance to Expand Capacity Triggers Sharp Stock Decline: Seagate shares plunged over 8% early in the session—the primary catalyst being CEO Dave Mosley’s remarks at the J.P. Morgan conference: building new factories takes too long and risks future overcapacity; instead, the company’s strategic priority is improving output efficiency at existing facilities via technological upgrades (e.g., HAMR). While market expectations had been high for an AI-driven storage supercycle—with nearline HDD capacity already sold out through 2027—management’s cautious stance on expansion triggered supply-side concerns. Market Interpretation: Investors worry about Seagate’s ability to keep pace with explosive storage demand driven by AI Agentic workflows. Although massive data generation continues, near-term sentiment is clearly dampened. Investment Insight: Short-term valuation pressure may present a tactical entry opportunity; long-term positioning depends on tracking technology upgrade execution and actual demand realization.
3. Intel (INTC) – Foundry Business Momentum Strengthens: Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan noted substantial progress in transforming Intel Foundry into a competitive contract manufacturing business, with growing client interest. Its 14A process chips are scheduled to enter production in 2028 and volume ramp-up in 2029. Additionally, Intel expressed acquisition interest in AI chip startup Tenstorrent—highlighting its ambitions across the AI hardware stack. This aligns with Intel’s broader strategy to reposition itself as an engineering-driven, world-class foundry. Market Interpretation: Analysts see growing potential for Intel to diversify its role in the AI hardware supply chain—especially as 18A/14A nodes gradually come online—potentially attracting more external customers. Investment Insight: Continued monitoring of transformation milestones is warranted, as they may serve as both a new growth catalyst and a basis for valuation re-rating.
4. Apple (AAPL) – iOS 27 Launch Expected at June WWDC: Apple plans to unveil iOS 27 at its annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) in June. The new OS emphasizes AI-powered enhancements—including an AI grammar checker, natural-language-generated system-level shortcuts, and custom wallpaper generation. These features will debut on next-generation iPhones and iPads and roll out publicly in September—extending Apple’s consumer-facing AI experience strategy. Market Interpretation: The market views this as strengthening Apple’s hardware-software ecosystem competitiveness in the AI era—particularly its differentiation in privacy protection and on-device computation. Investment Insight: Hardware-software integration remains Apple’s core moat; investors should track post-WWDC ecosystem adoption and its impact on services revenue uplift.
IV. Cryptocurrency Project Updates
1. On-chain analyst Yujin reported that, over just the past two months, Ondo’s multi-signature wallet has transferred over 328 million ONDO tokens (valued at $98.42 million) to exchanges such as Coinbase.
2. According to Cointelegraph citing Reuters, Meta plans a major restructuring on May 20—cutting 20% of its global workforce and reallocating 7,000 employees to AI-focused roles.
3. Tempo—a stablecoin payments blockchain backed by Stripe and Paradigm—is integrating Morpho’s $7.5 billion DeFi lending market to offer on-chain lending and yield products for fintech companies and enterprises built on its platform.
4. As reported by CoinDesk, Hyperliquid’s new agreement with Coinbase and Circle regarding USDC enables the protocol to capture most of the reserve income generated from stablecoin deposits on its platform. Analysts suggest that as revenue shifts from trading activity to stablecoin balances, the agreement could generate meaningful long-term buying pressure for the HYPE token.
5. Per The Block, two researchers from the Ethereum Foundation have resigned: Carl Beek and Julian Ma announced their departures on Monday. Beek is widely recognized for his contributions to Ethereum’s Beacon Chain—the foundation for Ethereum’s 2020 transition to proof-of-stake consensus. Ma contributed to Ethereum’s mechanism design, cryptoeconomics, and protocol scaling—including co-authoring FOCIL, which enhances censorship resistance.
6. White House officials confirmed that Trump will administer the swearing-in ceremony for incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh at the White House this Friday.
7. Sources indicated that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may issue its “Innovation Exemption” rule for tokenized stocks as early as this week—establishing a new regulatory framework for trading crypto-based versions of publicly listed equities. The SEC appears inclined to permit trading of third-party tokens representing public company shares—even without issuer endorsement or approval—as long as they trade on decentralized crypto platforms, though such tokens would not necessarily carry voting rights or dividend entitlements.
V. Today’s Market Calendar
Upcoming Data Releases
Key Event Preview
May 19 (Tuesday)
- U.S. ADP Employment Change for the week ending May 2;
- Google I/O 2026 Developer Conference (May 19–20); ★★★★★
- President Putin’s visit to China (May 19–20)—watch for implications on geopolitics and energy cooperation. ★★★★★
May 20 (Wednesday)
- NVIDIA (NVDA) Q1 earnings after market close (the absolute highlight of this week) ★★★★★
- SpaceX may file its IPO prospectus as early as Wednesday, targeting a June 12 listing ★★★★★
- U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending May 15;
- Other notable U.S. earnings: Lowe’s (LOW), Analog Devices (ADI), Target (TGT), Intuit (INTU), GDS Holdings (GDS), etc.
May 21 (Thursday)
- FOMC Minutes from the April 28–29 meeting (Powell’s final minutes; signal of the Walsh era beginning) ★★★★★
- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 16;
- U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMIs (May preliminary);
- Notable U.S. earnings pre-market: Walmart (WMT); Chinese ADRs: NIO, NetEase (NTES), Vipshop (VIPS), etc.
May 22 (Friday)
- U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (May final).
*This Week’s Core U.S. Equity Focus: NVIDIA’s blockbuster earnings (critical test of AI rally sustainability), Fed meeting minutes (signal of Powell’s departure and Walsh’s ascension), Google I/O developer conference, SpaceX’s potential IPO filing, plus major earnings from consumer and tech firms—including Walmart—and several Chinese ADRs. With dense macro data and corporate events, market volatility is expected to rise significantly.
Institutional Views: Leading investment bank analysts generally agree that Trump’s pause on Iran strikes injected short-term optimism—but Middle East uncertainty remains. Goldman Sachs’ view underscores AI productivity gains—not interest-rate trajectories—as the equity market’s enduring pillar. Though rate-cut expectations have shifted later, the fundamental logic of tech earnings restructuring remains unchanged. Oil prices retreated short-term but retain geopolitical risk premiums; precious metals face dual pressure from the dollar and yields. Crypto markets seek stability amid ETF outflows and macro volatility—advising focus on high-quality assets and robust risk management. Overall, the market is pivoting from geopolitical headlines to corporate fundamentals, with AI remaining the dominant theme.
Disclaimer: The above content was compiled using AI search tools and verified manually before publication. It does not constitute any investment advice. Data herein may contain unavoidable discrepancies; please refer to real-time market data for accuracy.
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