Bitget UEX Daily Report | Fed Holds Rates Steady with Hawkish Tone; Trump Threatens Iran; Gold and Silver Hit New Highs Before Pulling Back; Storage Sector Strong—Seagate Surges Over 19%
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Bitget UEX Daily Report | Fed Holds Rates Steady with Hawkish Tone; Trump Threatens Iran; Gold and Silver Hit New Highs Before Pulling Back; Storage Sector Strong—Seagate Surges Over 19%
Gold and silver hit record highs before sharply retreating, with gold briefly approaching $5,600.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Bitget
I. Top News Highlights
Federal Reserve Updates
Fed Holds Rates Steady; Powell’s Remarks Lean Hawkish
- The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, marking its first pause after three consecutive rate cuts. Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller dissented, voting for a 25-basis-point cut.
- Powell attributed higher-than-expected inflation primarily to tariff-related effects—not demand pressures—and noted that core PCE inflation remains slightly above 2%. He expects tariff-driven inflationary pressures to peak this year before receding.
- Market impact: The probability of a March rate cut dropped to 11.9% post-decision. Analysts believe the Fed has shifted focus toward inflation control, limiting near-term easing scope and potentially amplifying market volatility while supporting a dollar rebound.
International Commodities
Gold and Silver Retreat Sharply After Hitting Record Highs—Gold Nears $5,600
- Amid geopolitical tensions and dollar fluctuations, spot gold and silver surged to new all-time highs before plunging sharply—gold briefly approached $5,600 per ounce, while silver neared $120.
- Trump’s Iran-related threats intensified safe-haven demand, but hawkish Fed commentary triggered a reversal: gold fell ~1.64%, and silver declined ~1.12%.
- Market impact: Short-term volatility is likely to intensify, possibly drawing more safe-haven capital. However, a stabilized or rebounding dollar may cap further upside in precious metals.
Macroeconomic Policy
U.S. Treasury Secretary Reaffirms Strong-Dollar Policy, Denies Yen Intervention
- Secretary Janet Yellen emphasized the U.S.’ long-standing commitment to a strong dollar and confirmed no foreign exchange intervention to support the yen. She added that narrowing the trade deficit would bolster the dollar.
- She also noted uncertainty around potential government shutdowns—Trump urged Democrats to avoid one—and highlighted renewed USMCA negotiations, with the U.S. seeking to avoid initiating disputes.
- Market impact: This stance eased short-term dollar selling pressure and contributed to a rise in the DXY index. However, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and investigations into Fed independence may continue to undermine currency stability.
II. Market Recap
Commodities & FX Performance
- Spot Gold: +1.94% — followed by pullback after multi-day record highs.
- Spot Silver: +1.16% — heightened volatility amid elevated levels.
- WTI Crude Oil: +0.65% — rebound driven by weakening dollar and declining inventories.
- Dollar Index (DXY): −0.18% — pressured by hawkish Fed signals and tariff concerns.
Cryptocurrency Performance
- BTC: Down ~0.4%, ~$89,000 — short-term price action remains weak; consolidation continues near the $90K resistance level.
- ETH: Down ~0.5%, ~$3,005 — relatively more resilient than BTC, though facing resistance near the $3,000 psychological level; short-term moves influenced by fund flows and leverage activity.
- Total Crypto Market Cap: Down 2.4% — driven by Fed policy decisions and regulatory uncertainty.
- Liquidations: Long liquidations $306M / Short liquidations $319M — total liquidations $625M.
U.S. Equity Index Performance
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): +0.02% — steady consolidation amid range-bound trading.
- S&P 500: −0.01% — briefly breached the 7,000 level intraday before retreating, signaling profit-taking pressure.
- Nasdaq Composite: +0.17% — buoyed by strength in the semiconductor sector.
Tech Giants’ Updates
- Apple: −0.7% — weighed down by broad market volatility and lack of near-term product catalysts.
- Amazon: −0.68% — robust e-commerce demand offset by rising logistics costs.
- Meta: −0.63% — but rallied after hours on better-than-expected earnings, led by strong ad performance.
- Microsoft: Down >6% after hours — concerns over slowing cloud growth and high AI-related capital expenditures.
- Nvidia: +1.59% — sustained AI chip demand and broader semiconductor sector strength.
- Tesla: +0.13% — despite reporting first-ever annual revenue decline, confidence boosted by Robotaxi expansion plans.
- Alphabet (Google): +0.44% — stable search business and accelerating AI integration. Overall, tech giants posted mixed results, largely driven by earnings season dynamics, with cloud and AI spending emerging as key differentiators.
Sector Momentum Observations
Memory Stock Index up ~8%+
- Key stocks: Seagate Technology (+19%+); Western Digital (+10%+).
- Catalyst: Surging AI-driven memory demand and soaring Samsung chip profits lifted the entire sector.
Semiconductor Index up 1.73%+
- Key stocks: Intel (+11%+); Texas Instruments (+9%+).
- Catalyst: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hit a record high, supported by Nvidia collaboration and insider buying.
III. In-Depth Stock Analysis
1. Tesla — First-Ever Annual Revenue Decline Amid Robotaxi Progress
Event Summary: Tesla reported Q4 revenue of $24.9 billion and EPS of $0.50—both ahead of consensus—but full-year revenue fell 3% YoY, marking its first annual decline. The company plans to expand Robotaxi operations across seven U.S. markets and unveil its third-generation Optimus robot. On January 16, it signed an agreement to invest $2 billion in preferred shares of xAI. This development follows intensifying EV competition and ongoing supply chain optimization efforts.
Market Interpretation: Analyst opinions are divided: Goldman Sachs sees Robotaxi expansion as a long-term growth driver, whereas Morgan Stanley warns the revenue decline reflects softening demand and urges close monitoring of AI integration outcomes.
Investment Implications: Near-term volatility may increase, but robotics represents a compelling long-term thematic opportunity—monitor Robotaxi rollout progress closely.
2. Microsoft — Cloud Growth Slows Amid Soaring AI Investment
Event Summary: Microsoft’s Q2 FY2026 revenue and earnings exceeded expectations, with cloud revenue surpassing $50 billion for the first time. However, Azure revenue growth moderated slightly, and record-high capital expenditures raised concerns about AI ROI, triggering a >6% after-hours drop. This reflects surging AI investment amid uncertain payback timelines and intense cloud market competition.
Market Interpretation: Analysts such as Wedbush view high AI spending as strategically necessary and ultimately beneficial; Barclays cautions that slowing growth may signal emerging bottlenecks and advises tracking competitive dynamics closely.
Investment Implications: Near-term pressure persists, but successful AI monetization could re-rate valuation—watch next quarter’s ROI metrics.
3. Meta — Revenue Guidance Beats Expectations Amid Robust Ad Business
Event Summary: Q4 EPS stood at $8.88 and revenue at $59.89 billion—both above estimates. Advertising revenue reached $58.1 billion, accounting for 97% of total revenue. Daily active users totaled 3.58 billion; Q1 sales guidance of $53.5–$56.5 billion exceeds consensus. This follows digital ad recovery and optimized metaverse investments.
Market Interpretation: UBS views Meta as a primary beneficiary of advertising recovery, with strong guidance reinforcing confidence; Citigroup highlights stable user growth but flags regulatory risks.
Investment Implications: Advertising-centric model remains solid, offering strong near-term upside potential—monitor evolving privacy regulation impacts.
4. Intel — CFO Buyback & Nvidia Collaboration Boost Sentiment
Event Summary: CFO David Zinsner purchased nearly $250,000 worth of stock at $42.50 per share—the first insider buy since 2024. Supply-chain sources revealed that Nvidia’s 2028 Feynman platform will incorporate Intel’s 18A/14A process nodes, with Intel packaging contributing up to 25% of the platform. This unfolds against backdrop of intensifying foundry competition and expanding AI demand.
Market Interpretation: JPMorgan sees the partnership as enhancing competitiveness, while the insider purchase signals positive sentiment; Bank of America notes persistent process-node challenges and stresses execution validation.
Investment Implications: Collaboration may unlock new growth avenues—track technology implementation progress.
5. IBM — Strong Q4 Revenue Growth
Event Summary: Revenue rose 12% YoY to $19.69 billion, with software revenue up 14% and consulting revenue up 3.4%; non-GAAP EPS was $4.52, and free cash flow increased 23%. Driven by renewed demand for cloud and AI services, IBM rose >7% after hours.
Market Interpretation: Goldman Sachs applauds software expansion and strong cash flow supporting buybacks; Deutsche Bank notes modest consulting growth and recommends watching enterprise spending trends.
Investment Implications: Improved cash flow supports dividends—suitable for medium-to-long-term holding.
IV. Cryptocurrency Project Updates
1. Tether secretly purchases 1–2 tons of gold weekly; total gold reserves now stand at 140 tons.
2. Fidelity is set to launch its USD-pegged stablecoin FIDD on Ethereum.
3. Citrea mainnet goes live, enabling Bitcoin-pegged lending and trading.
4. The White House convenes banks and crypto firms to explore legislative compromise pathways.
5. The U.S. SEC issues a statement on tokenized securities, clarifying classification criteria and applicable legal frameworks.
V. Today’s Market Calendar
Data Release Schedule
| 20:30 | U.S. | Initial Jobless Claims | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| 20:30 | U.S. | Goods Trade Balance | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| 20:30 | U.S. | Durable Goods Orders | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| 21:45 | U.S. | Chicago PMI | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Key Event Preview
- ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel speech: 09:00 — watch for signals on ECB monetary policy.
- U.S. 2-Year Floating Rate Note Auction: 00:30 — monitor bond market liquidity.
Bitget Research View:
U.S. equity indices held near highs following the Fed’s hawkish pause—DJIA and Nasdaq edged higher thanks to semiconductor strength, while S&P 500 retreated after touching 7,000, reflecting profit-taking pressure. Goldman Sachs notes gold and silver remain well-supported despite recent pullbacks, with gold up >1.6% and silver up 1.1% on dollar weakness and geopolitical risk—though escalating Fed inflation concerns may cap gains. JPMorgan analyzes WTI crude’s 0.65% rebound as driven by falling inventories and dollar depreciation, yet global demand uncertainty limits upside. In FX, the DXY index fell 0.5%; although Yellen’s strong-dollar remarks temporarily curbed selling, overall dollar weakness helped lift commodities. Overall, short-term safe-haven sentiment dominates—monitor subsequent Fed guidance for implications on asset rotation.
Disclaimer: The above content was compiled via AI search and verified manually prior to publication. It does not constitute any investment advice.
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