Crypto Morning Briefing: Tom Lee and Fundstrat respond to diverging outlooks; this week H, XPL, JUP and other tokens face large unlocks
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
Crypto Morning Briefing: Tom Lee and Fundstrat respond to diverging outlooks; this week H, XPL, JUP and other tokens face large unlocks
Tether's mobile crypto wallet will integrate AI and support only BTC, USDT, USAT, and XAUT.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: TechFlow
Yesterday's Market Dynamics
Federal Reserve's Hammack: No rate cuts needed in coming months, more concerned about persistent inflation
According to Jin10 News, Federal Reserve official Michelle Smith Hammack stated that after three consecutive rate cuts at the past three meetings, there is no need for any interest rate adjustments in the coming months. Hammack opposed recent rate cuts because she is more concerned about persistently high inflation than potential labor market weakness. Hammack is not a voting member of the rate-setting committee this year but will become one next year.
"My base case is that we can keep rates where they are for a while—at least through spring—until we get clearer evidence that either inflation is moving down toward our target or the labor market shows more meaningful softness," she said Thursday in an interview with The Wall Street Journal’s Take On the Week podcast.
U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis announces retirement, crypto industry responds intensively
According to Cointelegraph, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis has announced she will not seek re-election, sparking reactions across the crypto industry. Lummis has long been viewed as a key proponent of Bitcoin and digital assets in Congress. Industry figures expressed gratitude and acknowledged her positive impact on sector development:
-
Collin McCune (Head of Government Affairs at a16z): "Without Lummis fighting in Congress, the crypto industry would not be where it is today."
-
David Sacks (White House AI and Crypto Lead / "Crypto Czar"): Called Lummis a "great ally in crypto" and expressed he was "very sorry" about her departure.
-
Greg Xethalis (Partner at Multicoin Capital): Praised Cynthia Lummis for advancing priority issues significantly.
-
Kyle Samani (Partner at Multicoin Capital): "The work isn’t done—we still have legislation to pass in 2026."
-
Natalie Brunell (Bitcoin advocate, host of Coin Stories): Thanked Lummis for her "service and efforts in advancing the Bitcoin cause" and wished her well in her next chapter.
Earlier reports indicated that Senator Cynthia Lummis’ term ends in January 2027, and she has decided not to run again.
Galaxy Research releases 2026 forecast: BTC could reach $250,000 by end of 2027
Galaxy Research has released its 2026 cryptocurrency market forecast.
The report predicts Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of 2027, but notes that 2026 will be too volatile for accurate predictions. Currently, options markets assign equal probability to Bitcoin prices being at $70,000 or $130,000 by the end of June 2026, and equal chances of $50,000 or $250,000 by year-end.
Other key forecasts include: at least one Layer-1 blockchain will integrate revenue-generating applications to directly return value to its native token; stablecoin transaction volume will surpass the ACH system; decentralized exchanges will capture over 25% of spot trading volume; the total market cap of privacy tokens will exceed $100 billion; the U.S. will launch over 50 spot altcoin ETFs and another 50 cryptocurrency ETFs (excluding single-asset spot products).
Coinbase releases 2026 outlook: Privacy, AI, app-specific chains, tokenized stocks among key directions
Coinbase Institutional has published its 2026 outlook report, offering in-depth analysis of next year’s crypto economic trends.
The report reflects cautious optimism for the first half of 2026, with Coinbase believing the U.S. economy remains resilient and market conditions resemble "1996" rather than "1999." Regarding institutional participation, Coinbase introduces the "DAT 2.0" model, suggesting institutions will shift from simple asset allocation to more sophisticated activities such as active trading, custody, and blockspace acquisition.
Technologically, growing demand for privacy is expected to accelerate development of zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs) and fully homomorphic encryption (FHE). The AI × crypto space may see autonomous agent systems capable of self-directed trading. App-specific chains will reshape competition in crypto infrastructure, while tokenized stocks could grow rapidly due to atomic composability advantages.
On market opportunities, composable crypto derivatives, prediction markets, and stablecoin payments are highlighted. The report projects the stablecoin market cap could reach a target range of $1.2 trillion by the end of 2028.
Citigroup: Predicts Bitcoin could rise to $143,000 in next 12 months
According to CoinDesk, Citigroup analysts have released a 12-month Bitcoin outlook report, setting a base-case target price of $143,000—representing a 62% increase from the current level of approximately $88,000.
Analysts Alex Saunders, Dirk Willer, and Vinh Vo stated jointly that digital asset adoption is expected to grow, U.S. digital asset legislation may advance in Q2, and Bitcoin could trade between $80,000 and $90,000 during the new year period. They identified $70,000 as a key support level and expect Bitcoin to surge to $143,000 under the base case due to renewed ETF demand and positive equity market sentiment.
The bank also outlined bearish and bullish scenarios: in a bear case, a global economic recession could drive Bitcoin down to $78,500; in a bull case, increased retail investor demand could push prices up to $189,000.
Tether's mobile crypto wallet to integrate AI, supporting only BTC, USDT, USAT, XAUT
Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether, revealed that Tether is developing a mobile cryptocurrency wallet with integrated AI functionality. The wallet will support only Bitcoin, USDT, its new stablecoin USAT, and tokenized gold XAUT, and will incorporate local private AI via QVAC. The wallet will be powered by WDK and QVAC—Tether’s open-source Wallet Development Kit and decentralized AI platform, respectively.
Earlier reports indicated Tether is hiring a lead software engineer for its mobile crypto wallet.
Tom Lee responds to Fundstrat outlook contradiction: Different analyst roles and time horizons
Regarding the conflicting Bitcoin outlooks between Tom Lee and his firm Fundstrat (Lee being very bullish, Fundstrat bearish), Fundstrat client Cassian posted that the interpretation of this debate is unfair and misleading. Tom Lee retweeted and replied “Well said.”
Cassian stated that the criticism takes things out of context—the reality is collaborative division of labor among different teams, timeframes, and responsibilities.
He explained that the three core members at Fundstrat have clear roles: Tom Lee focuses on macro and liquidity frameworks, speaks publicly most often, and remains long-term bullish on crypto assets; Sean Farrell, Head of Digital Asset Strategy, manages specific crypto portfolios and rebalancing—his decision to shift ~50% of the portfolio to cash/stablecoins if BTC drops to $60k–$65k is a risk management move, not a long-term bearish stance; Mark Newton analyzes from a technical perspective, believes October’s correction disrupted the prior uptrend, expects a rebound followed by consolidation, and sees room for further gains by year-end after structural repair. All three share consistent views on macro risks: the first half of 2026 will be highly unstable. The difference lies in Sean focusing on short-term defense, Mark on technical structure recovery, and Tom maintaining a structural long position from a longer-term, liquidity-driven perspective.
Cassian added that he holds substantial BitMine stock and won’t sell even if it drops 70%, because the risk of missing a major rally outweighs the benefit of trying to time the bottom. He emphasized that understanding who is speaking, their role, and their time horizon is crucial—and once properly contextualized, the claim that “Fundstrat contradicts itself” falls apart.
Fundstrat analyst under Tom Lee responds to divergence: Different client focus and strategy, still bullish on future
Sean Farrell, Head of Cryptocurrency Strategy at Fundstrat (Tom Lee’s firm), responded to the “outlook divergence” controversy, stating: “Fundstrat has multiple analysts with different research frameworks and investment time horizons, designed to meet diverse client objectives. Tom Lee primarily serves large asset managers and investors allocating 1%–5% of assets to BTC and ETH, requiring a long-term view. My research targets portfolios with high crypto exposure (around 20% or more in crypto assets), with a more active strategy focused on proactive rebalancing to consistently outperform the market across cycles.
My relatively cautious view for the first half reflects risk management, not outright bearishness. Market pricing currently appears nearly perfect, yet risks remain (government shutdown, trade volatility, uncertainty around AI capital spending, Fed chair transition, tightening high-yield bond spreads, low cross-asset volatility). Recent capital flows also show divergence. Bitcoin is currently in a valuation ‘no-man’s land.’ In the long run, as major brokerages join, ETF demand should improve—but near-term pressures include selling by early holders, miner stress, possible MSCI removal of MSTR, and fund redemptions.
My base case: a rally early in the year, followed by a pullback in the first half, creating a more attractive entry point for positioning ahead of year-end. If I’m wrong, I’d prefer to wait for confirmation signals. For investors following this outlook, I still expect Bitcoin and Ethereum to challenge new all-time highs by year-end, thus concluding the traditional four-year cycle with a shorter, shallower bear market.”
Earlier reports indicated Tom Lee is publicly bullish on BTC and ETH, while internal forecasts at his firm predict a deep correction.
F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun: Once sent 500 BTC to suspicious address, hacker took only 490
Wang Chun, co-founder of F2Pool, commented on X about the recent incident of allegedly losing 50 million USDT to phishing: Last year, I suspected my private key had been compromised. To confirm whether the address was truly breached, I transferred 500 BTC to it. To my surprise, the hacker was “generous”—they took only 490 BTC and left me 10 BTC to live on.
Hacker address: 14H12PpQNzrS1y1ipjF4mPuVgQEpgfGA79.
Douyin bans content packaging illegal finance with blockchain, digital asset concepts
According to Securities Times, Douyin has released the "Douyin Community Financial Industry Convention (Trial)," which states: “It is prohibited to package and publish illegal financial content related to virtual currency exchange services or providing information intermediation and pricing services for virtual currency transactions using concepts such as blockchain and digital assets; it is also prohibited to engage in illegal stock recommendation behaviors under the guise of science popularization, such as analyzing or predicting individual stock buy/sell prices, promoting future price movements, or offering investment advice.”
Michael Saylor reposts Bitcoin Tracker info, possibly hinting at another BTC accumulation
Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, has reposted information related to the Bitcoin Tracker.
Based on previous patterns, Strategy typically discloses new Bitcoin accumulation the day after posting such messages.
This week, tokens including H, XPL, JUP face large unlocks totaling over $70 million
Data from Token Unlocks shows that tokens including H, XPL, and JUP will undergo large unlocks this week, totaling over $70 million.
-
H will unlock 105.36 million tokens on December 25, worth approximately $15.62 million, accounting for 4.79% of circulating supply;
-
XPL will unlock 88.89 million tokens on December 25, worth approximately $11.5 million, accounting for 4.52% of circulating supply;
-
JUP will unlock 53.47 million tokens on December 28, worth approximately $10.28 million, accounting for 1.73% of circulating supply;
-
SOON will unlock 21.88 million tokens on December 23, worth approximately $8.82 million, accounting for 5.97% of circulating supply;
-
MBG will unlock 15.84 million tokens on December 22, worth approximately $8.04 million, accounting for 8.42% of circulating supply;
-
UDS will unlock 2.15 million tokens on December 23, worth approximately $5.17 million, accounting for 1.46% of circulating supply;
-
SAHARA will unlock 132.93 million tokens on December 26, worth approximately $3.57 million, accounting for 5.30% of circulating supply;
-
ALT will unlock 240.1 million tokens on December 25, worth approximately $2.78 million, accounting for 4.85% of circulating supply;
-
VENOM will unlock 59.26 million tokens on December 25, worth approximately $2.57 million, accounting for 2.14% of circulating supply;
-
SOSO will unlock 4.16 million tokens on December 24, worth approximately $2.31 million, accounting for 1.59% of circulating supply;
-
W will unlock 50.41 million tokens on December 26, worth approximately $1.75 million, accounting for 0.99% of circulating supply;
-
IOTA will unlock 12.37 million tokens on December 24, worth approximately $1.09 million, accounting for 0.33% of circulating supply.
Market Update
Suggested Reading
Flying Toward a $1.5 Trillion IPO: How Musk Nearly Lost Everything Before Going Public
This article details Elon Musk and his company SpaceX’s journey from startup to an impending $1.5 trillion IPO, covering SpaceX’s early struggles, breakthroughs in rocket reusability, the rise of Starlink, and future Mars colonization plans. It highlights how Musk’s “first principles” thinking has disrupted industry norms and underscores SpaceX’s massive influence in aerospace and communications.
Vibe Coding: A Potential New Narrative for Web3
This article discusses the potential of Vibe Coding as a new narrative for Web3 and its possible impacts on both Web2 and Web3 domains. It analyzes current market trends, the emergence of Vibe Coding platforms, challenges they face, and lists relevant projects and use cases.
Treasuries, Yields, and the Illusion of Safety: Real-World Benchmarks
This article explores the nature of treasuries in the crypto space, the relationship between risk and yield, and proposes a yield ladder model to better understand treasury returns. It emphasizes that treasuries are not just yield instruments but also risk products, calling for greater transparency and higher risk management standards in the industry.
7 Key Crypto Trends and Lessons to Know in 2026
This article analyzes the main trends and lessons from the 2025 cryptocurrency market, reviewing the year’s turbulence and changes, and offers outlooks for the direction of crypto in 2026. It highlights the importance of prediction markets, perpetual contracts, consumer-grade crypto products, and security tokenization, while proposing strategies for maintaining competitive advantage in the crypto space.
From Doubao Controversy to Big Tech Rivalry: Decoding Legal and Compliance Dilemmas in AI Phones
This article examines legal and business conflicts arising from the “all-in-one assistant” feature in AI phones, particularly the tensions exposed in battles with internet platforms involving technological, legal, and business model contradictions. It analyzes the benefits and challenges brought by AI phones and explores deeper implications from legal, data security, antitrust, and user responsibility perspectives, advocating for a balance between innovation and compliance.
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
深潮TechFlow
