Trump pushes hard for pro-crypto Fed nominee, is a September rate cut now inevitable?
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
Trump pushes hard for pro-crypto Fed nominee, is a September rate cut now inevitable?
This week, stablecoins continued to be issued, while U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw continuous net inflows, with Ethereum breaking through $4,000, delivering a strong performance.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Hotcoin Research
Cryptocurrency Market Performance
The current total cryptocurrency market cap is $3.86 trillion, with BTC accounting for 60% at $2.3 trillion. Stablecoin market cap is $269.8 billion, up 1.04% over the past 7 days, with USDT representing 61.21%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most are up while a few are down: MNT up 41.91% over 7 days, PENDLE up 31.81%, PUMP up 29.16%, MYX up 1420.3%, TOSHI up 22.52%.
This week, net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs: $253.6 million; net inflows into U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs: $326.4 million.
Market Outlook (August 11–15):
Stablecoins continue to be issued, and U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continue to see net inflows. Ethereum broke above $4,000 this week, performing strongly. The RSI index stands at 62.75, indicating overbought conditions. The Fear & Greed Index is 68 (higher than last week).
BTC: Likely to trade within the range of $114,500–$118,500, with breakout direction depending on U.S. CPI data. If data supports rate cut expectations, it may test $120,000; if data is strong, it could fall back to support at $112,500.
ETH: May continue outperforming BTC, with primary trading range between $3,750 and $4,200. Any positive signal from the SEC regarding spot ETFs could drive further ETH gains.
Short-term investors: Can adopt a range-trading strategy, buying near support levels and partially taking profits near resistance.
Mid-to-long-term investors: Should use potential pullbacks to gradually build positions, focusing on strong support zones near $112,500 for BTC and $3,300 for ETH.
Understanding the Present
Weekly Recap
1. On August 6, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) released a statement on liquid staking activities, stating that such activities are not considered securities;
2. On August 6, Base published a report on its downtime incident, which caused a 33-minute block production interruption on August 5 due to a switch to a backup sequencer that was not properly configured to handle transactions;
3. On August 5, JD Blockchain, a subsidiary of JD.com, stated it has noticed false reports and rumors in the market and confirmed it is preparing to apply for a stablecoin license in Hong Kong;
4. On August 7, according to Etherscan data, daily transaction count on the Ethereum network rose to 1.87 million, approaching the all-time high of 1.96 million set on January 14, 2024;
5. On August 6, Cboe BZX, part of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), submitted a 19b-4 filing to the U.S. SEC requesting permission for VanEck’s Ethereum ETF to stake ETH through trusted staking providers to earn rewards as income;
6. On August 6, Cboe BZX filed another 19b-4 with the SEC seeking approval for VanEck’s Ethereum ETF to stake ETH via trusted providers for yield. The SEC and Ripple officially concluded their four-year legal battle, upholding the initial ruling;
7. On August 8, Trump announced the nomination of pro-crypto official Stephen Miran to serve as a Federal Reserve governor.
Macroeconomic
1. On August 6, the White House said Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on goods from India in response to India's continued purchase of Russian oil. After the new tariffs were announced, oil prices briefly spiked to intraday highs;
2. On August 7, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark rate from 4.25% to 4%, marking the fifth rate cut in the current easing cycle and in line with market expectations;
3. On August 7, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 2 came in at 226,000, higher than the expected 221,000;
4. On August 8, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 92.7%, while the probability of holding rates steady is 7.3%.
ETF
Data shows that from August 4 to August 8, net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs amounted to $253.6 million. As of August 8, GBTC (Grayscale) has seen cumulative outflows of $23.662 billion and currently holds $21.058 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) holds $85.956 billion. The total market cap of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs is $152.024 billion.
Net inflows into U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs: $326.4 million.
Anticipating the Future
Event Preview
1. Coinfest Asia 2025 will be held in Bali, Indonesia from August 21 to 22;
2. WebX Asia 2025 will take place in Tokyo, Japan from August 25 to 26;
3. Bitcoin Asia 2025 will be hosted at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre from August 28 to 29.
Key Events
1. On August 12 at 12:30, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision;
2. On August 12 at 20:30, the U.S. will release unadjusted July CPI (year-over-year);
3. On August 14 at 20:30, the U.S. will release seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims (in thousands) for the prior week (through August 9).
Token Unlocks
1. Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.3 million tokens on August 12, valued at $53.04 million, representing 2.2% of circulating supply;
2. Avalanche (AVAX) will unlock 1.67 million tokens on August 15, worth approximately $39.14 million, or 0.33% of circulating supply;
3. Starknet (STRK) will unlock 126 million tokens on August 15, valued at $16.18 million, or 5.98% of circulating supply;
4. Sei (SEI) will unlock 55.56 million tokens on August 15, worth approximately $17.12 million, or 1.21% of circulating supply;
5. Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 92.63 million tokens on August 16, worth approximately $39.11 million, or 2.04% of circulating supply.
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
@HotcoinAcademy
