HTX DeepThink: Is rotation already happening? Crypto credit and InfoFi may become new focal points
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HTX DeepThink: Is rotation already happening? Crypto credit and InfoFi may become new focal points
This issue, HTX Research's Chloe focuses on the crypto credit and InfoFi sectors, analyzing their potential and structural value in this new phase.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insights
In late May, the crypto market continued its strong performance supported by improving macro liquidity. Bitcoin demonstrated solid resilience, on-chain funding structures kept optimizing, and market risk appetite gradually increased. High-beta assets and quality altcoins began attracting incremental attention, with rotation patterns becoming increasingly evident.
This issue of HTX Research features Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), focusing on the crypto credit and InfoFi sectors, analyzing their potential and structural value in this new phase.
Structural Evolution Under Macro Support: Bitcoin Stable, Altseason Poised to Begin
As of May 21, 2025, the Federal Reserve's net liquidity rebounded to 602.2869 billion USD, recovering strongly from the beginning-of-month lows. Although it has not yet reached the key range of 6100–6200, this trend preliminarily signals a recovery in liquidity, providing macro support for the crypto market.
Despite weakening demand in long-term government bond auctions in both the U.S. and Japan last week—the U.S. 20-year Treasury yield surging past 5%, and Japan’s long-term interest rates hitting a 25-year high—raising concerns about global liquidity tightening, the U.S. Treasury continues primarily absorbing funds through 3–6 month T-Bills, mainly draining money market funds rather than risk assets. The Fed can also pause balance sheet reduction or activate repo operations at any time, limiting pressure on risk assets.
Bitcoin thus maintained strong resilience: spot ETFs continue to see modest net inflows, over 70% of Bitcoin on-chain has been held for more than six months, exchange balances keep declining, and capital from Asia and the Middle East is accumulating positions at lower levels. Even if U.S. Treasury net financing soars to $1.25 trillion between July and September, short-term issuance combined with repo backstops reduces direct drain on high-beta assets. Meanwhile, ETF passive holdings and widely distributed “hard coins” disperse selling pressure, and expectations of dollar depreciation further bolster Bitcoin’s strength.
On-chain data shows rising activity on public chains such as Solana and Base, indicating capital is gradually shifting from Bitcoin-dominated safe-haven assets toward high-beta altcoin markets. BTC Dominance remains high and has not significantly declined yet. However, if it drops below 52% amid further liquidity expansion, a new altseason could officially begin.
Analysis of Current High-Potential Sectors
Wall Street Boosts Crypto Credit: Maple ($SYRUP) Becomes Institutional Gateway
Cantor Fitzgerald launched a $2 billion Bitcoin-collateralized lending program, with initial participants including crypto broker FalconX and decentralized lending protocol Maple Finance, marking Wall Street capital’s major entry into the crypto credit market. FalconX has already drawn down over $100 million under this framework, and Maple has completed its first loan disbursement.
The project token $SYRUP is now available for spot and futures trading and earn products on HTX. Since its listing, the spot price has surged 110%, while futures have also performed strongly, reflecting clear market recognition. Maple’s newly launched syrupUSDC/USDT perpetual institutional credit pool offers 8–12% annualized yield with fully transparent collateralization, rapidly attracting significant institutional idle stablecoins. Its TVL has skyrocketed from $800 million to $1.3 billion this month—market participation demonstrates strong validation of SYRUP’s model and growth potential.
Rising Star in InfoFi: $COOKIE Could Trigger Next Revaluation Cycle
Based on current on-chain and macro liquidity data, $COOKIE’s positioning within the InfoFi sector stands on the brink of breakout potential. Compared to Kaito, a similar project in the space, CookieDotFun’s current market cap is only one-fifth of Kaito’s. Once monetization mechanisms like the Cookie leaderboard and ad-space bidding launch, $COOKIE’s market cap could significantly expand, showing strong revaluation potential. Currently, HTX has launched COOKIE/USDT futures trading, and KAITO, previously covered in the HTX DeepThink column, is already listed on HTX, achieving a 30-day gain of 138%.
Note: This article does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer, solicitation, or recommendation regarding any investment product.
About HTX DeepThink
HTX DeepThink is a premium insight series by HTX, focusing on global macro trends, core economic data, and key developments in the crypto industry. It aims to inject fresh perspectives into the market and help readers “find order in chaos” amid the ever-changing crypto landscape.
About HTX Research
HTX Research is the dedicated research arm of HTX Group, conducting in-depth analysis across cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends. It produces comprehensive reports and expert evaluations, committed to delivering data-driven insights and strategic foresight. HTX Research plays a key role in shaping industry discourse and supporting informed decision-making in the digital asset space. With rigorous methodologies and cutting-edge data analytics, HTX Research remains at the forefront of innovation, leading thought leadership and advancing understanding of evolving market dynamics.
For inquiries, please contact research@htx-inc.com
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