HTX DeepThink: The altcoin rotation season in crypto, who can capture Bitcoin's spillover funds
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
HTX DeepThink: The altcoin rotation season in crypto, who can capture Bitcoin's spillover funds
Focus on the sector rotation potential within the SUI ecosystem and the AttentionFi sector.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insights
Mid-May has brought a brief calm during a lull in macroeconomic data releases, yet sentiment in the crypto market continues to heat up. While major assets show volatile upward momentum, capital is beginning to rotate into high-quality altcoins with solid fundamentals. In this edition of HTX DeepThink #5, HTX Research's Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) presents a macro outlook and strategic positioning analysis, focusing on sector rotation potential within the SUI ecosystem and the AttentionFi space.
Macro Outlook: Rising Market Sentiment, Short-Term Bias Remains Bullish
This week sees no major U.S. economic data releases, shifting focus to Federal Reserve officials’ responses regarding comments that rate cuts may occur only once this year. Options markets reflect dominant bullish sentiment: the Call/Put open interest ratio stands at 1.55, with call premiums continuing to rise; meanwhile, short-term implied volatility (IV) has been suppressed to a 18-month low of 35–40%.
This indicates a state of “high sentiment, low volatility”—under which conditions Bitcoin could retest new highs within 30–45 days, potentially breaking into the $105,000–$115,000 range. However, such a “high sentiment + low volatility” environment often masks accumulating leverage risks. A sudden spike in volatility or a decisive break below $100,000 for BTC could trigger a deleveraging cascade.
Trading Strategy: Rotate Into Quality Alts to Capture Overflowing Capital
In practice, while managing overall portfolio exposure, rotating part of one's holdings into fundamentally strong, liquid quality altcoins may allow investors to capture spillover momentum from Bitcoin’s rally. This edition of HTX DeepThink #5 highlights promising projects across selected sectors for investor reference.
SUI Ecosystem: Mainnet Hits New High, Leading Projects Still Undervalued
Recently, the SUI mainnet market cap reached an all-time high, yet its ecosystem projects have not seen systemic catch-up rallies. Now may be a critical window to position early in leading ecosystem players. Huobi HTX has already listed two high-potential SUI projects: Haedal and Bluefin.
● Haedal: The leading LST protocol on SUI, capturing 76% of the market share and benefiting from strong network effects.
● Bluefin: A primary Perp DEX in the SUI ecosystem, with a market cap of just $31.6 million, yet achieving $8.2 million in annualized revenue—giving it a price-to-sales ratio of only 3.8x, significantly undervalued compared to GMX (9.1x) and Drift (12.4x). Its upcoming V2 upgrade will introduce a veToken model and enhanced user incentives, potentially boosting both trading activity and protocol revenue.
Amid rising attention toward the SUI mainnet, Haedal and Bluefin—as core infrastructure projects—possess dual upside potential from valuation recovery and beta expansion, making them suitable for medium-term monitoring and positioning.
AttentionFi Sector: Capturing Bull Market Traffic红利
In the current bull market phase, as new projects emerge rapidly, Web3 traffic acquisition costs are soaring. Under traditional customer acquisition models, user cost is typically determined by traffic × conversion rate. For example, on platforms like Telegram, Google, or Xiaohongshu, each click costs around $0.5–$1, with average conversion rates at 10%, meaning projects must spend $5–$10 per retained user. Kaito offers a more efficient "traffic engine": its API charges based on "reputation × high-quality engagement", delivering 3–4x higher user retention at the same budget, reducing cost per user to $2–$3, significantly lower than other channels. Additionally, through early collaborations with multiple popular projects on airdrops, Kaito has accumulated a massive user base. This cost efficiency has driven rapid growth—project integrations have increased from 30 to 120 in the past three months, with API call volume quadrupling.
At the same time, community staking of $KAITO has reached 19.7 million tokens, and the protocol has repurchased and burned 3.7 million tokens, further strengthening the token's price floor. On Base chain’s IDO platform Virtuals, users who stake ≥5,000 $KAITO earn Virgen points to redeem for IDO allocations, creating a closed loop of “staking → points → arbitrage.” It should be noted that projects aiming to appear on Kaito’s Yapper Leaderboard must incur significant vote-buying costs and stake $KAITO. To mitigate this, teams can use GiveRep for zero-cost reputation screening and seed community building before leveraging Kaito for viral campaigns—similar to the relationship between large and small exchanges. GiveRep maintains close ties with the SUI Foundation and collaborates with popular SUI projects such as ika and Typus, carrying notable airdrop expectations. Currently, HTX has listed $KAITO. Amid intensifying traffic competition in the bull market, Kaito’s low-cost, precise user targeting and deflationary protocol design make it a promising asset worth watching.
Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice nor any offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any investment product.
About HTX DeepThink
HTX DeepThink is a premium insight series crafted by HTX, focusing on global macro trends, key economic data, and hot topics in the crypto industry. It aims to inject fresh perspectives into the market and help readers “find order within chaos” amid the ever-changing world of cryptocurrency.
About HTX Research
HTX Research is the dedicated research arm of HTX Group, responsible for in-depth analysis across cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends. It produces comprehensive reports and professional assessments, committed to delivering data-driven insights and strategic foresight. HTX Research plays a pivotal role in shaping industry narratives and supporting informed decision-making in the digital asset space. With rigorous methodologies and cutting-edge data analytics, HTX Research remains at the forefront of innovation, driving thought leadership and fostering deeper understanding of evolving market dynamics.
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
