HTX DeepThink: After Surpassing $95,000, What Awaits Bitcoin?
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HTX DeepThink: After Surpassing $95,000, What Awaits Bitcoin?
HTX DeepThink focuses on global macro trends, key economic data, and hot topics in the crypto industry, helping readers find order amidst the chaos of the ever-changing crypto world.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insights
"HTX DeepThink focuses on global macro trends, core economic data, and key developments in the crypto industry, helping readers find order amid the chaos of the ever-changing crypto world."
Trump has temporarily set aside his tariff threats as Bitcoin surges toward $95,000, yet prospects for trade negotiations remain uncertain. With critical data releases imminent, early May could become a pivotal liquidity window. This edition features HTX Research's Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), who unpacks the macro landscape and explores the visible tailwinds and hidden undercurrents shaping the crypto market.
Trump’s Second Hundred Days: Delivering Promises, Renewing Momentum
Within its first 100 days, the Trump administration swiftly implemented several pro-crypto policies—spurring some traditional enterprises to make their first Bitcoin purchases—by advancing stablecoin regulation, appointing a crypto-friendly SEC chair, and promoting government spending cuts via DOGE. Moving forward, the White House will prioritize trade deal negotiations and Ukraine peace efforts, while pushing forward the "Big Beautiful Bill" centered on massive tax cuts, strong border security, and regulatory rollback, along with securing Senate passage of the FIT21 Act to establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets.
Last Week in Review: Decoupling and Driving Forces
Last week, the crypto market initially decoupled from U.S. equities, lifted by a持续 weakening dollar index, accelerating adoption of crypto assets by traditional firms and financial institutions, rising on-chain stablecoin issuance, and consecutive net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs—all driving Bitcoin prices up to $88,000. Later, dovish comments from Trump and Secretary Bessent on tariffs further boosted sentiment, pushing Bitcoin to $95,000. While these remarks signaled positive progress on trade deals, actual agreements may still take months to finalize. Moreover, hardline tariff hawks within the administration continue to exert significant influence, creating major uncertainty for future market direction.
Key Data Ahead: A Short- to Medium-Term Turning Point
This week brings the release of the preliminary Q1 U.S. GDP and core PCE price index (Wednesday, April 30, 8:30 PM Beijing Time), followed by April’s nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate (Friday, May 2, 8:30 PM Beijing Time). Investors should consider hedging strategies around these data events.
Markets expect GDP growth to slow from last year’s 2.4% to between 0.2% and 0.4%, core PCE inflation to ease from 2.8% to 2.6% year-over-year, nonfarm payrolls to drop from 228,000 to around 130,000, and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.2%. If data show weak growth but cooling inflation, mid-year rate cut expectations would strengthen, supporting risk assets including crypto. Should all figures exceed expectations, rate cuts could be delayed or even reversed, pressuring crypto in the short term. In extreme scenarios, if GDP stagnates alongside a collapse in employment, panic selling may occur before recovery driven by renewed rate-cut hopes; conversely, if inflation spikes while growth stalls, stagflation risks would emerge.
Fed Holds Steady: Technically Able to Cut Rates, But Self-Preservation Prevails
Currently, the Fed holds about $3.3 trillion in system reserve balances and roughly $94 billion in overnight reverse repo, with the Treasury General Account (TGA) also at elevated levels—technically enabling further monetary easing through rate cuts. However, during FY2024, the Fed paid $226.8 billion in interest on reserves and reverse repo facilities, while earning only $158.8 billion from Treasuries and MBS holdings, resulting in a $7.75 billion annual net loss. An abrupt 30-basis-point rate cut would reduce income from its $6.7 trillion asset portfolio by approximately $20 billion annually, widening losses and sharply reducing remittances to the U.S. Treasury. To preserve fiscal sustainability and political independence, the Fed opts to keep rates unchanged.
Liquidity Window and Summer Risks: The Optimal Timing for Positioning
If this week’s data meet expectations, a short-term liquidity window may open in May, potentially drawing capital back into crypto markets. However, after the debt ceiling is raised, the Treasury is expected to issue new bonds between June and July to replenish the TGA to $50–60 billion, withdrawing equivalent liquidity from markets. This will push up short-term rates and weigh on risk assets. Historically, each major TGA refill has been followed by a 5%–10% decline in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market over the subsequent weeks. Amid this interplay of policy tailwinds and tightening liquidity, projects and investors should seize the early-May window while preparing hedges for summer TGA replenishment.
In this complex environment shaped by shifting policies and liquidity flows, short-term strategies should focus on key data releases and liquidity windows. For the medium to long term, attention should center on the implementation of regulatory frameworks like FIT21 and the expanding use cases for stablecoins. Additionally, continued monitoring of institutional capital flows into Bitcoin (BTC) and non-BTC assets (such as Solana) is essential.
TechFlow DeepThink: Finding Order in Chaos
Note: This article does not constitute investment advice, nor any offer, solicitation, or recommendation regarding investment products.
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