"Last hope of copycats" AI Agent continues to plummet—hold or cut losses?
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
"Last hope of copycats" AI Agent continues to plummet—hold or cut losses?
The wrong PVP speedrun FOMO environment, lack of confidence in keeping up with value innovation, and other factors collectively caused the short-term collapse of AI Agents.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Haotian
Looking at the piles of AI Agent projects nearly collapsing (19B ——> 6B), there's an overwhelming sense of collective annihilation, evoking not just sorrow but widespread confusion. What exactly happened to the AI Agent sector? Let me reflect and share a few thoughts:
1) Mass casualties are common in the early stages of new trends, as bad actors launch new assets faster than innovative projects can deliver real results. Most people are forced into "PVP" battles within a chaotic sea of unproven concepts. Although research-focused content creators like us strive to adopt a PVE mindset to uncover valuable projects, we can't escape the reality: the AI Agent narrative revolution is currently just a masked ball dressed in AI MEMEs.
However, retail investors' FOMO or bearish sentiment won't determine the final outcome. Only when a sustainable new Lego-like paradigm emerges will the choices of major capital confirm whether AI Agents can truly gain momentum.
2) Given the historic convergence of AI and crypto, AI Agents cannot be invalidated. In the short term, many criticize web3 AI Agents for merely炒作 concepts compared to web2 AI Agent applications, which is understandable. However, the application-driven core of AI Agents remains unchanged—web2 chooses API calls and user-paid business models, while web3 opts for Tokenomics. Therefore, all abstract concepts built atop AI Agents will ultimately be validated through individual AI application scenarios.
For example, DeFai-type AI Agents: using TEEs for autonomous asset custody is only the first step; the second step involves enabling AI to autonomously execute concrete operations like Swap and Staking based on natural language understanding. But true validation of business model maturity lies in measurable outcomes: growth in TVL locked by AI Agents, increased number of user transactions executed via AI Agents, and improvements in user experience (such as reduced gas friction and higher profit probability). Until these metrics can be verified, it's impossible to fully endorse any specific project.
Until then, set aside the anxiety of missing out on MEME plays, focus instead on innovation-driven breakthroughs from valuable projects, and wait for a genuine, verifiable commercial innovation to emerge—a solid "foundation" capable of accumulating sustainable business value.
3) Although AI Agents appear to have diversified into niches such as standalone AI, framework standards, and DeFai, most still exude an amateurish "makeshift troupe" vibe.
While early-stage innovation fields inevitably go through chaotic "dark ages," the lack of product innovation behind #ai16z’s open-source spiritual icon, the challenges of bringing mature agents to market despite constant novelty under #Virtual, and the wildly inflated market expectations—30-300M valuations sparked by just one dev, one repo, and one potential business roadmap—are clearly irrational.
Incorrect valuation and pricing models, a flawed PVP fast-track FOMO environment, and eroding confidence in value-driven innovation have collectively caused the short-term collapse of AI Agents. Fortunately, market expectations around AI Agents still exist. Hardcore holders are hurting but holding on, and capable, technically sound, high-barrier startups—the "professional forces"—are now entering rapidly, such as #arc’s ongoing pursuit and challenge to ai16z.
Clearly, the earlier web3 AI Agent model—relying on AI Agent narratives for rapid asset issuance and MEME-driven mechanics—has been proven invalid. The next wave of innovation is gathering strength, and this market cooling-off period may actually be the ideal window for investing in R&D and identifying promising projects.
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
Haotian | CryptoInsight
