From DeepSeek to reciprocal tariffs, Web3 will not end
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From DeepSeek to reciprocal tariffs, Web3 will not end
Not knowing when I'd return, the flowers have fallen so profusely.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Zuo Ye
Let the little whale fly, fly out a $TRUMP
Goblets shared with you, swords spared not—I thought everyone saw Trump and Milei as part of an international right-wing alliance, but their rushed token launches made this open-top car coalition look oddly abstract, as if "not resembling a ruler at first glance."
Then on Valentine’s Day, Chuanbao handed out reciprocal tariffs to the world—yet clearly watered them down. They won’t actually take effect until April, yet he leaked the news early, forcing others to come negotiate terms, creating leverage from thin air.
Facing Milei’s international scam, no one expected Trump himself would launch a coin. So while people forgot the lesson of the Central African president's celebrity token one-day wonder, Milei still attracted strong support in crypto circles due to his libertarian branding—only to deliver the deepest betrayal from those closest to him.
Returning to DeepSeek’s impact, enterprises across China, the U.S., and Europe are integrating it. The most unlikely outcome would be American capitalists calling on the U.S. government to impose sanctions and bans—a move deeply uncapitalist, more akin to industrial policy, completely upside-down.
No one anticipated DS would launch an open-source + low-cost technological surprise attack. The stereotype had long been that domestic industries excel only at copying and implementation, not open source or original innovation. But this event has largely overturned that perception—so much so that OpenAI may now reconsider going open source under pressure.
At its core, because the U.S. has effectively deindustrialized, only the high valuations of finance sustain the dollar’s global purchasing power. As a result, every technology and product must ultimately become a financial miracle to prove American superiority.
From DeepSeek to reciprocal tariffs, we can already anticipate Trump’s main trajectory over the next four years: financialization is inevitable; reindustrialization is impossible—but there will be bold attempts to profit under the guise of reindustrialization, and plenty of them.
Because DeepSeek came, the AI narrative has collapsed—at least for now
In the DeepSeek episode, Trump first praised, then banned, then praised again—performing a hat-trick of political theater. Yet according to Bloomberg’s latest report, DeepSeek is valued between $1 billion and $155 billion—roughly half of OpenAI’s valuation—potentially forming a “Pengtification” framework.
Yet with major U.S. firms actively integrating DeepSeek, the principle of “who doesn’t love something free?” stands out. This will severely disrupt Trump’s thinking, since his reciprocal tariff policy is essentially a political weapon, not an economic tool.
In Trump’s view, other countries enjoy “most favored nation” status, meaning U.S. imports face lower foreign tariffs while American exports encounter higher ones abroad.
But this is actually an inevitable consequence of America’s choice to build its economy around finance and dollar globalization. If the U.S. doesn’t maintain a trade deficit, other nations won’t acquire enough dollars for international transactions. Hence, combined with the Fed’s latest signals, we’ll continue seeing Powell carefully managing expectations around rate hikes and cuts—though in reality, just like housing prices in the Eastern superpower, they can neither rise nor fall.
Regarding future Web3 price predictions, the following four foundational understandings are essential—otherwise one might mistakenly believe Meme coins and BNB Chain will dominate, which isn’t the case:
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The U.S. stock market needs new support points. Whatever Wall Street talks about, crypto follows—there is no independent crypto market;
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Capital is currently locked in various ETFs, with little spillover into crypto. More importantly, there’s no longer a compelling tech narrative—pure Meme PVP cannot attract long-term capital;
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Next focus areas: U.S. equities, ETFs, DeepSeek responses (new AI algorithms, embodied intelligence, biotech innovations), Ondo+, BlackRock, governments—traditional finance or government moving on-chain.
With Nvidia’s market cap returning to $3 trillion, U.S. stocks have mostly weathered the DeepSeek shock. GPT and Google have launched new products, though market reactions were lukewarm. While narrowly surviving this round, the sector now urgently needs fresh catalysts to rescue AI and computing power valuations.
Overall, I remain positive on both Wall Street and crypto. Musk is pushing government data and funds on-chain—if this happens on Ethereum or Solana, it could spark a new bull run. But if he builds his own private consortium chain, it’ll be boring.
Web3 won’t collapse because of Memes
Under the ripple effects of DeepSeek’s disruption, the Web3 AI Agent narrative has reached a point of temporary collapse. After $TRUMP/MELANIA/LIBRA delivered three consecutive blows draining all liquidity from Meme PVP mechanics, we’ve entered a dull second-act phase.
CZ still maintains influence over Binance—for example, listing TST and criticizing Binance’s listing policies—but the tide has turned. Under U.S. Department of Justice oversight, Binance, Labs, and BNB Chain have fully separated. Investment, incubation, and listing processes have been dismantled. I’ve long believed that Binance’s regulatory crackdown was the true cause of VC token narrative collapse—or at the very least, the first domino pushed.
Over years, Binance consolidated the entire process—from token creation to final distribution. Unmatched liquidity led to massive listing surges, which in turn convinced project teams to offer discounted allocations to Labs and BNB holders. This cycle repeated endlessly, ultimately forming the strongest Web3 wealth bloc.
But these conditions no longer exist:
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BN, BN Labs, and BNB Chain are now factually separate; projects on BNB Chain and Labs can no longer count on reliable exchange listings;
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The rise of DEXs puts Binance’s main platform and other CEXs at risk of becoming mere exit ramps for tokens—simply improving listing procedures won’t solve the root problem;
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The underlying concern with VC tokens is the temporary collapse of the tech narrative. Even on BNB Chain, dominant in Meme/DeSci/AI Agent spaces, sustaining long-term momentum remains difficult.
Still, no need for excessive worry. Web3 may lack many things, but robustness remains as resilient as ever. The real coming shock? More altcoin ETFs beyond BTC and ETH will gradually gain approval, steadily siphoning liquidity that should have gone into on-chain PVP. With neither VC tokens nor Meme coins able to sustain momentum, the big question is: where does crypto go from here?
In other words, we can abandon the current VC token model of high FDV and low liquidity, and even step back from Meme speculation to focus honestly on building—but we must bring new ideas. Lessons from the 2017 and 2021 crises show Web3 always finds new paradigms, though anyone clinging to past models will be left behind.
Amid the crisis facing CEXs like Binance, DEX opportunities have truly arrived. Yet Jupiter’s performance and controversies show that while Solana is faster, it still lacks the stability of the ETH ecosystem. Before February, FUD against ETH peaked—what goes to extremes rebounds. Crypto moves too fast, causing unnecessary anxiety, but really, it’s not needed.
Conclusion
Out with the old, in with the new—that’s nature’s way. Amid macro policy uncertainty, sustained DEX development has shown us that what was once seen as a necessary evil—the CEX—can indeed be challenged. This time, innovation isn’t driven by tech leaps like ETH ZK L2s, but rather by product thinking and combinations of existing technologies. Yet DeepSeek’s success has already proven: engineering progress is the essential path to broad technological diffusion.
Once owned by noble houses, BTC now enters common homes.
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