BCA Research: Trump's return to the White House could trigger four "black swan" events, with US stocks projected to plunge up to 26% this year
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BCA Research: Trump's return to the White House could trigger four "black swan" events, with US stocks projected to plunge up to 26% this year
According to Jinshi, BCA Research, a Wall Street research firm, stated in its latest report that Trump's return to the White House in 2025 could trigger four "black swan" events. First, Trump might reach a new nuclear deal with Iran, alleviating concerns over global oil supply, but BCA still estimates a 75% probability of U.S.-Iran military conflict in 2025. Second, Trump may undermine America's commitment to NATO, leading to a decline in the euro and rising risk premiums for Eastern European assets. Third, the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border could escalate—military action by the United States would trigger a security crisis, while a tariff war could fuel inflation.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsTechFlow news, January 13 — According to Jinshi News, Wall Street research firm BCA Research's latest report指出 that Trump's return to the White House in 2025 could trigger four "black swan" events.
First, Trump may reach a new nuclear deal with Iran, alleviating global oil supply concerns; however, BCA still estimates a 75% probability of U.S.-Iran military conflict in 2025. Second, Trump might undermine America's commitment to NATO, triggering a fall in the euro and rising risk premiums for Eastern European assets. Third, the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border could escalate—military action by the U.S. would spark a security crisis, while a tariff war could drive inflation higher. Finally, countries may jointly intervene in currency markets to counter U.S. tariff threats, leading to a sharp depreciation of the dollar.
BCA is one of the most bearish firms on Wall Street. In its previous report, the firm reiterated its recession forecast and predicted U.S. stocks could plummet as much as 26% this year.
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