Crypto Morning News: Galaxy Research predicts BTC will surpass $150,000 in the first half of next year; tokens including SUI, OP, and ZETA are set for large-scale unlocks this week.
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Crypto Morning News: Galaxy Research predicts BTC will surpass $150,000 in the first half of next year; tokens including SUI, OP, and ZETA are set for large-scale unlocks this week.
According to the current data of this indicator, the proportion of long-term holders of Bitcoin is 62.31%, and that of Ethereum is 75.06%.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: TechFlow
Yesterday's Market Dynamics
Jeffy Yu, Co-founder of Zerebro: Building consumer-facing agent launch platform Zentients
Jeffy Yu, co-founder of Zerebro, announced on X that the team is building a consumer-facing agent launch platform called ZENTIENTS. Jeffy Yu emphasized that $ZEREBRO’s uniqueness lies in its fully circulating token supply, meaning the team isn't constructing a traditional "tokenomics" model involving gradual issuance, distribution, and vesting. Instead, it's creating a value accrual framework powered by the Zerebro stack, composed of three components:
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Zerebro – the main agent
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ZerePy – the agent framework
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Zentients – the consumer agent launch platform
Zentients aims to create a seamless UI/UX for launching and growing agents while returning value to $ZEREBRO. Jeffy Yu noted that specific details are still being finalized but stressed the importance of maintaining simplicity in the framework:
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Agents will need to pay $ZEREBRO as a creation fee and will launch on a bonding curve with fees denominated in $ZEREBRO
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Once an agent’s token reaches a certain valuation, it will graduate (liquidity from the bonding curve will be deposited and locked into a DEX)
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Afterward, traders can buy and sell within real-time liquidity pools using $ZEREBRO
Additionally, Jeffy Yu mentioned another key concept under exploration: developing a standardized agent communication layer—an “agent TCP.” This would involve creating a structured payload format for inter-agent messaging, ensuring all agents can send and receive messages consistently and in a framework-agnostic manner.
IRS Requires DeFi Brokers to Report Digital Asset Sales Gains and Collect User Transaction Data Starting 2027
The U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has finalized rules requiring DeFi brokers to report total proceeds from digital asset sales and provide customers with Form 1099, collecting user transaction information including names and addresses. The Treasury Department stated the final rules apply to “front-end service providers” who interact “directly with customers,” meaning entities operating primary websites used to access decentralized protocols—not the protocols themselves. According to the document, the rule is expected to take effect for transactions occurring on or after January 1, 2027. The idea of strengthening tax enforcement on digital asset service providers was first introduced in the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act passed in 2021, aimed at helping fund the spending authorized by the bill.
a16z Crypto: Supporting Blockchain Association’s Lawsuit Against IRS Over “DeFi Broker” Rule
Michele Korver, Head of Regulatory at a16z Crypto, posted on X: “We at a16z Crypto believe DeFi will make financial services and the digital economy more accessible, efficient, interoperable, reliable, and consumer-centric. However, yesterday’s Treasury Department announcement of new broker reporting rules poses a direct threat to this promise and undermines the future of DeFi innovation in the United States. We at a16z Crypto support the Blockchain Association, DeFi Education Fund, and Texas Blockchain Council in their lawsuit, as the IRS and Treasury have exceeded their statutory authority, violated the Administrative Procedure Act (APA), and acted unconstitutionally. DeFi builders should be confident that industry lawyers are fighting to protect this technology. We will continue to fight on all fronts—through the courts, Congress, and with the incoming administration.”
VolatilityShares Files Application for Solana-Based Leveraged Futures ETF
Nate Geraci, President of The ETF Store, tweeted that VolatilityShares has submitted an application to the U.S. SEC for an exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on Solana futures, offering 1x, 2x, and -1x leveraged exposure. VolatilityShares previously advocated for the approval of Ethereum futures ETFs.
Galaxy Research Annual Forecast: BTC to Surpass $150K in First Half, ETH to Exceed $5,500
Galaxy Research released its 2025 forecast report covering Bitcoin, Ethereum prices, DOGE, stablecoins, DeFi, Layer 2s, policy, venture capital, and more. Key predictions include:
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Bitcoin will surpass $150,000 in the first half and test or reach $185,000 by Q4 2025.
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U.S. spot Bitcoin ETPs will exceed $250 billion in assets under management by 2025.
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Bitcoin will again rank among the top risk-adjusted performing assets globally in 2025.
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At least one top wealth management platform will recommend a Bitcoin allocation of 2% or higher.
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Five Nasdaq-100 companies and five nation-states will announce adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets or sovereign wealth funds.
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Bitcoin developers will reach consensus on the next protocol upgrade in 2025.
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Over half of the top 20 publicly traded Bitcoin miners by market cap will announce pivots or partnerships with hyperscalers, AI, or high-performance computing firms.
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Bitcoin DeFi (defined as total BTC locked in DeFi smart contracts and staking protocols) will nearly double in 2025.
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Ethereum will trade above $5,500 in 2025.
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Ethereum staking rate will exceed 50%.
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ETH/BTC ratio will fall below 0.03 during 2025 but close the year above 0.06.
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Layer 2 networks collectively will generate more economic activity than alternative Layer 1s in 2025.
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DeFi will enter a “dividend era,” distributing at least $1 billion in nominal value to users and token holders via treasuries and revenue-sharing mechanisms.
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On-chain governance will see a revival, with applications experimenting with new governance models.
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Four of the world’s largest custodial banks will offer digital asset custody in 2025.
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At least ten TradFi-backed stablecoins will launch.
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Total stablecoin supply will double, exceeding $400 billion by 2025.
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Tether’s long-standing market dominance will drop below 50%, challenged by yield-bearing alternatives such as BlackRock’s BUIDL, Ethena’s USDe, and even USDC rewards from Coinbase/Circle.
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Total crypto venture capital investment will exceed $150 billion, up over 50% year-on-year.
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Stablecoin legislation will pass both chambers of Congress and be signed by President Trump in 2025, though market structure legislation will not.
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The U.S. government will not purchase Bitcoin in 2025 but will use existing holdings to build reserves, with various departments and agencies exploring expanded Bitcoin reserve policies.
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The SEC will investigate Prometheum, the first licensed “Special Purpose Broker-Dealer.”
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Dogecoin will finally reach $1, giving the world’s oldest and largest memecoin a $100 billion market cap.
IntoTheBlock: Long-Term Holder Ratio Rises for ETH, Falls for BTC
IntoTheBlock shared on X the trend in long-term holder percentages for Bitcoin and Ethereum over the past year. Data shows a decline in Bitcoin’s long-term holder share, while Ethereum’s has steadily increased and surpassed Bitcoin early in the year. Current figures indicate 62.31% of Bitcoin is held by long-term holders, compared to 75.06% for Ethereum.
Data: SUI, OP, ZETA Among Tokens Facing Major Unlocks This Week, With SUI Unlock Worth ~$270M
SUI, OP, ZETA, and other tokens will undergo significant unlocks this week:
Sui (SUI) will unlock approximately 64.19 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on January 1, 2025, representing 2.19% of current circulating supply and worth around $270 million;
Optimism (OP) will unlock approximately 31.34 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on December 31, 2024, representing 2.32% of current supply and worth about $58.6 million;
ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock approximately 53.89 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on January 1, 2025, representing 9.35% of current supply and worth around $32 million;
Beldex (BDX) will unlock approximately 330 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on December 30, 2024, representing 4.78% of current supply and worth about $26.1 million;
Sleepless AI (AI) will unlock approximately 23.21 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on January 1, 2025, representing 17.85% of current supply and worth around $14.6 million;
Azuki Founder: ANIME Won’t Have TGE Before Year-End, Token Launch Precedes Mainnet
Azuki founder Zagabond disclosed to the community that $ANIME will not have its TGE before year-end, though related announcements will come soon. The $ANIME token will launch prior to the Anime Chain mainnet going live.
Market Data
Suggested Reading
The internet has entered a new phase—an AI-driven era. This article outlines five key trends at the intersection of cryptocurrency and AI:
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Stablecoins have achieved product-market fit and may soon be widely adopted in payments, helping low-margin businesses improve profitability.
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The crypto space is developing its own app stores and discovery mechanisms, encouraging broader developer and user participation.
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Crypto technology is reshaping the future for creators, small and medium enterprises, and even restaurants.
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Developers can now reuse existing infrastructure instead of building from scratch, accelerating product and service iteration.
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AI and crypto may converge to form a new socioeconomic model, where AI agents own wallets and operate autonomously on decentralized networks.
This article provides an in-depth analysis of airdrop design strategies and user behavior patterns. Through quantitative and qualitative studies of representative airdrops across three domains—Layer 2 networks, perpetual decentralized exchanges, and liquid restaking protocols—the author identifies key success factors and offers targeted recommendations.
Key Investment Themes to Watch in Crypto for 2025
In 2025, AI and DeFi will emerge as two core investment themes in the crypto space. Privacy infrastructure, Web3 wallets, and meme markets will also remain prominent areas of interest.
A Founder’s Christmas Reflection: To Achieve Wealth, You Must Practice What You Preach
The article shares a founder’s personal journey and growth. The author notes that entrepreneurship is tough but far more fulfilling than a traditional 9-to-5 job, despite the greater pressure and challenges. Practical advice is shared on time management, capital allocation, and pursuing financial freedom.
The Future Challenges and Opportunities of GameFi in 2025
Sustaining player engagement, adopting new technologies, and building sustainable in-game economies are critical hurdles GameFi must overcome to stay competitive.
Unstable in-game economies remain a leading cause of project failures; data-driven, sustainable token modeling is key.
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