Macro data releases pile up, BTC tests $66,000
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Macro data releases pile up, BTC tests $66,000
Although Bitcoin is struggling to break through the $70,000 resistance level, it's only a matter of time before growing tailwinds propel it to new all-time highs and into price discovery mode.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy Mary Liu, TechFlow
Financial markets remained volatile on Tuesday, with a cluster of key macroeconomic data and central bank decisions set to be released over the next three days. The Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England will all announce critical interest rate decisions.
The Bank of Japan will be the first to act, announcing its decision on Wednesday (Tuesday evening U.S. time). Analysts are divided on whether it will raise its policy rate from the current 0%-0.1% range or signal an imminent hike. Japan's inflation has been above the 2% target for some time, and while the yen has recently gained ground, it remains near multi-decade lows against the U.S. dollar.
Next comes the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday afternoon Eastern Time. According to CME FedWatch data, traders expect the central bank to hold rates steady. However, market expectations for a September rate cut have now reached 100%. All eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, particularly regarding the timing and number of potential rate cuts this year.
The Bank of England will announce its policy decision early Thursday afternoon. Economists and rate markets are roughly split on whether the central bank will ease policy for the first time in years. Even if a rate cut does occur, it may come with strong cautionary language, signaling to markets that a series of宽松 measures should not be expected.
TechFlow data shows that Bitcoin bulls attempted to defend the $66,800 support level overnight but failed, leading to a midday drop to a low of $65,526. Bears are now testing the strength of the $65,000 support. At the time of writing, Bitcoin has recovered to $66,316, down 1.66% over the past 24 hours.
The broader altcoin market saw widespread declines, with only three tokens among the top 200 by market cap posting gains above 4%.
Compound (COMP) led the gainers with a 7.3% rise, followed by BinaryX (BNX) up 6.7%, and Book of Meme (BOME) up 5.6%. Flux (FLUX) suffered the largest loss, down 9.4%, Raydium (RAY) fell 9%, and Jupiter (JUP) dropped 8.6%.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization currently stands at $2.35 trillion, with Bitcoin’s market dominance at 55%.
In U.S. equities, major indices opened higher but reversed course midday due to weak earnings reports and continued rotation into small-cap stocks. By market close, the Dow Jones rose 0.50%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 0.50% and 1.28%, respectively.
Approximately $800 Million Worth of BTC Futures Open Interest Liquidated
Commenting on Bitcoin’s latest price movement, prominent trader Skew noted that approximately $800 million worth of BTC futures open interest (OI) was wiped out after Bitcoin fell below $70,000. He stated, "It appears the late long deleveraging has completed, with around 12K BTC or $802 million in OI liquidated."
Open interest refers to the total number of outstanding derivative contracts related to BTC across all exchanges.
According to Skew, spot selling triggered the decline, and the market needs increased leveraged long positions and spot buying volume to reclaim the weekly opening price of $67,500.
Trader Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that long liquidations were trapped around $69,000, resulting in a “significant reduction in open interest.” Like Skew, Daan Crypto Trades believes spot market activity will play a key role in determining the next market direction.
“I think we’re in for even greater volatility,” said Daan Crypto Trades.
New Highs Are Just a Matter of Time
A survey of cryptocurrency analysts suggests that despite Bitcoin’s struggle to break above the $70,000 resistance level, growing tailwinds make a new all-time high and entry into price discovery mode inevitable—only a matter of time.
Market analyst Rekt Capital commented on X, stating: “Bitcoin still has a chance to break out in September. History suggests it's unlikely to break out of the re-accumulation zone just about 100 days post-halving.”
Analyst ArmanShabanTrading offered a more detailed view, suggesting Bitcoin will stabilize within its current range before moving higher.
He explained: “By analyzing the Bitcoin chart on a weekly timeframe, we observe that after entering our target supply zone, price experienced an initial correction, dropping to $63,500. Subsequently, it encountered rising demand and was able to climb back toward $70,000 yesterday.”
ArmanShabanTrading added: “It is well known that $70,000 is a significant psychological resistance level, so price reacted accordingly. Currently trading around $66,600, we need to watch whether price can stabilize above the $62,700–$63,500 support zone. If it holds above this level, we can expect further upside, with next targets at $72,000, $73,777, and $77,000.”
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