How will altcoins perform in the next 3 months? Bankless predicts the trends for 10 tokens
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How will altcoins perform in the next 3 months? Bankless predicts the trends for 10 tokens
Previously predicted win rate of 43.7%, the current forecast is generally bearish.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsSource: Bankless
Author: Golem
This week, BTC and ETH rebounded amid multiple developments surrounding the U.S. election and the approval of Ethereum spot ETFs. How will altcoins perform over the next three months? Recently, the Bankless analysis team made predictions for 10 altcoins over the coming quarter. This article compiles the analysts’ forecasts and reasoning, along with a summary of their previous predictions, for readers' reference.
Previous Forecast Accuracy: 43.7%
In early July, during a broad market downturn, Bankless predicted the 3-month price movements of 16 tokens. For details, see "Which Tokens Will Rise or Fall in the Next Three Months? Bankless Predicts 16 Tokens." To date, their prediction accuracy stands at approximately 43.7%, with 7 out of 16 tokens moving as expected.
For the L2 sector, all predictions were correct—top L2 tokens underperformed ETH. ETH has risen about 25% since early July, while ARB (down 5%), BLAST (down 23%), OP (down 17%), and STRK (minimal movement) all declined.
However, predictions for L1 and SLD sectors were less successful. SOL and ETHFI have risen 23% and 9% respectively, while AVAX, which was expected to rise, fell 8%.
DeFi Sector
Maker (MKR)
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View: Neutral
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Reason: High growth potential but highly cyclical
Prediction Period: July 22, 2024 – October 22, 2024
Price at Prediction: $2
Price Movement Since: No significant change
The Bankless team holds a neutral view on MKR’s future performance. If the crypto bull market continues, investors may recognize Maker’s substantial growth potential. However, during bear markets, it could face losses—especially if Ethena goes bankrupt.
In 2023, Maker increased DAI supply by minting stablecoins directly into high-demand money markets—initially through its Spark lending subDAO, and now also via third-party apps like Morpho. In 2024, the rise of high-yield synthetic dollar collateral from Ethena enabled Maker to lend DAI at a premium, with collateral stability allowing borrowers to take on debt at very high loan-to-value ratios.
Maker currently generates $281 million in annualized fee revenue, ranking among the most valuable crypto projects. If the crypto market continues growing, its current fully diluted P/S ratio of 9.6x is not excessive.
Instadapp (INST)
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View: Bullish
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Reason: New features give it an edge in DeFi competition
Prediction Period: July 16, 2024 – October 16, 2024
Price at Prediction: $2.20
Price Movement Since: Down 1.36%
Bankless believes INST could outperform the market, as crypto investors seek alternatives to valueless tokens, and Fluid adoption could boost Instadapp’s usage and revenue.
From June to July, previously underperforming DeFi tokens with real revenue and fundamentals began attracting trader attention—Instadapp being one. It’s a platform that aggregates multiple DeFi protocols into a unified smart contract layer. This year, the team launched Fluid, combining money markets and DEXs on a unified Instadapp liquidity layer, enabling users to earn yield on collateral and gain greater borrowing flexibility.
Stacks (STX)
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View: Neutral
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Reason: Improving fundamentals but faces securities classification risk
Prediction Period: July 15, 2024 – October 15, 2024
Price at Prediction: $1.88
Price Movement Since: No significant change
From 2017 to 2019, Hiro Systems (formerly Blockstack) raised $70 million through token sales—including the first SEC-qualified public token sale via Reg A+ in 2019, and offerings under Reg D and S exemptions to accredited and international investors.
After Stacks transitioned to a decentralized Proof-of-Transfer consensus mechanism, Hiro Systems filed with the SEC in January 2021, stating it would no longer provide “essential managerial services” for the Stacks blockchain, aiming to remove STX’s status as a security.
The SEC disagreed and later launched an investigation. However, last Friday, the SEC announced it does not intend to take enforcement action against Hiro Systems.
Bankless remains neutral on Stacks. While the SEC confirmed Hiro committed no violations in its token sales, the announcement did not clarify whether STX is a security—leaving significant unresolved risks. Fundamentally, the upcoming Nakamoto upgrade will decouple transaction confirmation times from Bitcoin’s 10-minute block time, enabling faster confirmations—a positive catalyst for the token.
Maple Finance (MPL)
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View: Bearish
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Reason: Limited product competitiveness and increasing token inflation pressure
Prediction Period: July 10, 2024 – October 10, 2024
Price at Prediction: $11.64
Price Movement Since: Up 65.64%
Bankless is pessimistic about MPL’s outlook due to limited adoption of its cash management product, risks of unsecured loan defaults recurring, likely liquidations of crypto-collateralized loans during downturns, weak incentive effects from its points program, and increasing future token inflation adding selling pressure.
Although Maple’s TVL nearly tripled since March, its token price is down 60% from monthly highs. The increase was driven by overcollateralized USDC loans for BTC and SOL offered to a small number of whitelisted traders.
On June 8 at ETHCC, Maple announced a 50% points deposit boost for its retail-focused Syrup product, requiring only re-depositing assets into existing pools—mainly its highest-yield secured loan pool. These rewards come from 23% token inflation approved in proposal MIP-009, expected to continue. When SYRUP tokens launch, recipients may convert points into an unspecified amount of SYRUP.
Ondo Finance (ONDO)
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View: Bearish
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Reason: Valuation too high for market to sustain
Prediction Period: July 8, 2024 – October 8, 2024
Price at Prediction: $0.92
Price Movement Since: Up 13.52%
Bankless expects market growth in the coming months will struggle to justify ONDO’s massive valuation.
From March to early June, Ondo’s token price and TVL doubled, but in the month prior to analysis, inflows stalled and ONDO’s market cap shrank by a third.
Ondo’s $550 million in deposits yield ~5%, generating just under $30 million in annualized revenue—yet it trades at a staggering 303x P/S ratio, indicating investors are betting heavily on future growth.
Even assuming the total addressable market for on-chain money market tools is worth trillions, persistent lack of growth makes it hard to justify ONDO’s valuation. If blockchain achieves mainstream adoption, Ondo merely tokenizes traditional asset managers’ products and could be swiftly replaced by actual issuers like BlackRock.
Other Sectors
BNB Chain (BNB)
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View: Bearish
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Reason: Weak ecosystem; partial U.S. operations insufficient to drive gains
Prediction Period: July 19, 2024 – October 19, 2024
Price at Prediction: $593.54
Price Movement Since: Down 1%
Bankless sees no reason for BNB to rise on news that Binance US received court approval to invest in U.S. Treasuries. Since June, BNB Chain’s on-chain metrics have been declining, lacking momentum to sustain ecosystem development.
On July 19, the court overseeing the SEC vs. Binance case approved BAM—the entity managing Binance US—to invest corporate assets and customer fiat funds held at BitGo into 1-month U.S. Treasuries, provided no third parties (including other Binance entities) are involved, and Binance US maintains sufficient reserves for fiat withdrawals.
While earning yield via exchange accounts might attract users to Binance US—and potentially entice them to buy BNB—it's unclear this feature will lure crypto traders, especially since Coinbase already offers a USDC yield program.
Mantle (MNT)
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View: Neutral
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Reason: Strong competitive edge but faces broad L2 sector pressures
Prediction Period: July 18, 2024 – October 18, 2024
Price at Prediction: $0.85
Price Movement Since: Up 2.85%
Bankless takes a neutral stance on MNT. While Mantle can compete with other L2s, the sector broadly faces valuation headwinds from increasing supply, and Mantle will need to dilute its token to fund incentive programs.
In 2024, MNT has been the top-performing L2 token, outperforming major rivals like MATIC, ARB, and OP by over 100%, and is one of the few cryptos this year tracking ETH’s performance closely.
Unlike other L2s, Mantle Network uses MNT for gas (increasing utility), enjoys relatively higher liquidity (reducing potential sell pressure), and has a massive $2.5 billion war chest to fund future user incentives.
Despite these advantages, L2s broadly face intense pressure from continuous token unlocks and new emissions. Additionally, since June, Mantle’s ecosystem activity has declined. As users exit, token prices could become reflexive. Moreover, 90% of Mantle’s treasury is denominated in MNT, meaning distributing tokens as incentive airdrops creates sell-side pressure.
Livepeer (LPT)
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View: Bearish
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Reason: Limited product-market fit and overvalued token
Prediction Period: July 17, 2024 – October 17, 2024
Price at Prediction: $16.98
Price Movement Since: Down 9.19%
Bankless believes Livepeer has limited product-market fit in decentralized video streaming, and LPT is overvalued due to sustained lack of growth—its performance in the coming months is unlikely to improve.
On July 17, Grayscale, a leading crypto asset manager, announced a Decentralized AI Fund offering exposure to blockchain-based AI protocols it believes “can help mitigate fundamental risks associated with AI adoption.” Livepeer is one of five assets included, allocated 8.6%.
Founded in 2017, Livepeer is a decentralized video infrastructure network providing live and on-demand streaming. Despite years in operation, adoption remains minimal, with daily revenue not exceeding a few hundred dollars.
Ethereum Name Service (ENS)
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View: Bearish
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Reason: Excessive token speculation without real usage growth
Prediction Period: July 11, 2024 – October 11, 2024
Price at Prediction: $26.07
Price Movement Since: Down 3.72%
Bankless believes ENS is more overvalued than ever, and lack of growth will soon force price to align with fundamentals.
At the time of analysis, ENS had risen 90% from May lows, possibly fueled by expectations around ETH spot ETF approval. Despite the price surge, actual ENS usage plummeted—weekly fees dropped to just $192,000 on July 1, the lowest since July 2021.
Speculation viewing ENS as a high-beta play on Ethereum has pushed its token price to 243x fees—the highest multiple on record. Unfortunately, the growth needed to sustain this valuation failed to materialize. If priced at the same multiple as August 2023, ENS should trade at $3.46—50% below its historical low and 85% below the analysis price.
Celestia (TIA)
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View: Bearish
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Reason: Low revenue and severe inflation
Prediction Period: July 9, 2024 – October 9, 2024
Price at Prediction: $7.17
Price Movement Since: No significant change
Despite a sharp price correction already, Bankless expects the market will resist the large token inflation scheduled for October 31, which will nearly double TIA’s circulating supply.
TIA introduced the “stake-to-earn” narrative, catching a relatively frothy crypto market post-airdrop, and surprised holders with a 10x return within four months, peaking in early February 2024.
Despite promises of numerous airdrops for TIA stakers protecting data for other crypto networks, few projects have actually targeted TIA stakers, and received tokens only marginally boosted staking yields—the bulk of returns still come from inflationary TIA issuance.
Cheap data availability with semi-degraded security may be ideal for some L2s, but Celestia appears more like a charity than a business, generating extremely limited revenue and relying on inflation to subsidize operations.
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