When BTC and ETH diverged, 12 industry professionals shared their outlooks on the future market as follows
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
When BTC and ETH diverged, 12 industry professionals shared their outlooks on the future market as follows
Bitcoin enters a sideways trading phase, while Ethereum moves in the opposite direction.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily
Over the past few days, amid expectations of nearly $9 billion worth of Bitcoin sell-offs from Mt. Gox, Bitcoin reversed its upward trend and entered a downtrend, briefly dropping below $59,000. On the other hand, Ethereum—previously dragged down by Bitcoin’s movements—has rebounded due to growing optimism around the imminent approval of spot ETFs. The price trajectories of the two assets now show a striking divergence, often described as "Bitcoin to the left, Ethereum to the right." It's no surprise then that 10X Research, a well-known crypto research firm, faced backlash from market participants after making bullish BTC and bearish ETH comments.
In this article, Odaily Planet Daily compiles and interviews major viewpoints currently circulating in the market, including insights from institutions, analysts, platform executives, and crypto KOLs, for readers’ reference.
With Ethereum ETF Approval Imminent, Is Bitcoin Losing Steam?
According to Fortune, recently, SEC Chair Gary Gensler, when asked about the progress on Ethereum spot ETF approvals, said: “I don’t know the exact timeline, but things are moving forward smoothly.” He explained that his team is waiting for asset managers to provide “appropriate disclosures.”
Clearly, after the 19b-4 filings have passed, the approval of S-1 forms for Ethereum spot ETFs seems all but certain. However, on the flip side, as the decade-long saga of Mt. Gox nears its conclusion—set to end with proportional repayments to creditors—it has triggered fears of massive selling pressure.
As detailed in Odaily Planet Daily’s previous article, Ten Questions and Answers: Debunking Myths Around the Mt. Gox Incident, creditor repayments scheduled for July will mark the first time Mt. Gox returns funds in BTC and BCH. This means 141,686 BTC (and a similar amount of BCH) held by Mt. Gox will begin entering the market. These BTC holdings represent 0.72% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply, valued at approximately $8.54 billion. Additionally, Germany’s seized Bitcoin assets worth $3 billion have been active lately. Combined with OTC transactions from early Bitcoin holders, miners, and publicly listed mining firms, estimated recent Bitcoin sell-offs exceed roughly $3 billion.
To put this in perspective, the net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs accumulated over the past half-year amount to approximately $14.387 billion—barely matching the sum of these outflows. Hence, market anxiety is entirely understandable.
However, many industry figures hold differing views.
Market Outlook Unclear—What Do Industry Insiders Think?
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $61,549, up 0.66% in 24 hours; Ethereum hovers near $3,389, up 0.5% over the same period. Regarding future market trends, we broadly categorize predictions into four camps: bullish, cautiously optimistic, bearish-leaning, and “fall first, then rise.” Here are the details:
Bullish Camp: All-Time Highs Still Within Reach
In a recent media interview, eToro market analyst Farhan Badami stated that Bitcoin is typically seen as a “forward-looking” asset, pricing in major market events ahead of time. Therefore, he expects Bitcoin prices to stabilize in the coming weeks and continue rebounding toward new all-time highs over the next few months. “In the next few weeks, Bitcoin may trade between $60,000 and $70,000,” he added.
CryptoQuant analyst Mignolet pointed out that based on UTXO profitability percentage analysis from last year’s consolidation phase, although Bitcoin is currently consolidating, UTXO profitability has clearly moved away from lows. At this point, accumulation whales might respond to market panic—buying Bitcoin when others fear, echoing Warren Buffett’s famous investment maxim—hinting at a potential V-shaped recovery.
Jonathan de Wet, Chief Investment Officer at digital asset trading firm ZeroCap, said that while the broader crypto market “continues to decline,” he anticipates Bitcoin will fall to a “key support level” of $57,000 over the coming weeks as Mt. Gox creditors receive repayments. “Considering other assets in the market, BTC and ETH have actually performed surprisingly well. Their prior key support levels were $63,000 and $3,400 respectively, and both remain clearly within their price ranges over the past few months.” Thus, despite downward pressure from Mt. Gox-related selling, which could push crypto prices lower in the short term, he remains optimistic long-term. “We take a constructive view medium-to-long term, as ETH ETFs are expected to bring easing sentiment by end of 2024, followed by actual easing in 2025.”
Cautiously Optimistic Camp: Awaiting Key Data and Q4 Catalysts
Recently, Matrixport reported that data from multiple Bitcoin ETF issuers indicate institutional investors—including asset management firms, investment advisors, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds—are buying spot Bitcoin ETFs. However, since mid-March, inflows have nearly halted, and over the past ten days, $1.2 billion has flowed out, suggesting institutional participation is slower than anticipated.
Sam Callahan, Senior Analyst at Swan Bitcoin, said in an email exchange with media: “The impact of Mt. Gox distributing Bitcoin on price may be overstated. Creditors who wish to sell have had over a decade to offload their bankruptcy claims to more committed long-term investors. Moreover, most creditors are likely to hold onto their Bitcoin, given their average cost basis per coin is below $700.”
This view is shared by many.
Galaxy Research Head Alex Thorn previously stated: “It’s reasonable to assume that most BTC received by funds from creditors will be distributed in-kind to LPs rather than sold.”
On May 28, the movement of 25,000 BTC from Mt. Gox began, which Alex interpreted as the start of creditor distributions. Aside from that, he expects most BTC will be held, while BCH may face significant short-term selling pressure.
Chinese crypto KOL Phyrex told Odaily Planet Daily that while short-term market direction is hard to predict, key macro indicators—this Friday’s core PCE and next Friday’s non-farm payroll data—could open upside potential for BTC and ETH if they meet market expectations. The July 2 decision date for Ethereum spot ETF approval, followed by trading commencement the next day, is also critical and could boost investor sentiment. Currently, markets are primarily driven by Fed monetary policy, with rate cut expectations dominating.
Regarding ETH spot ETFs, he believes a classic “sell the news” scenario is inevitable, but based on BTC ETF’s post-approval trajectory, it may not be optimal—after all, “investors who sold BTC on the news missed out on at least 40% gains.” Beyond that, he sees the U.S. election as a catalyst for risk markets and personally adopts a dollar-cost averaging strategy.
Brokerage Bernstein noted in a recent research report that once approved, demand sources for Ethereum spot ETFs may resemble those of Bitcoin ETFs but on a smaller scale. Analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra emphasized that without staking functionality, conversion volumes for Ethereum spot ETFs are expected to be limited. Nevertheless, they anticipate underlying trading will gradually attract buyers, sustaining healthy ETF liquidity.
Moreover, despite recent market pullbacks, the report stressed that “the structural adoption cycle for crypto remains intact.”
Bearish-Leaning Camp: Weak Liquidity and Capital Market Performance
Bitfinex’s latest weekly report shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw daily outflows exceeding $100 million last week, totaling $544.1 million. The exchange’s analysts attributed these outflows to weak ETF investors reacting to short-term negative news and unwinding of basis/funding arbitrage positions due to negative funding rates. One sign of such arbitrage unwinding is the sharp drop in Bitcoin futures open interest on CME and other platforms. Declining positions align with negative funding rates across multiple exchanges and ETF net outflows, indicating a significant reduction in ETF-related funding arbitrage activity.
Given this, it must be recognized that not all ETF outflows equate to spot sales. Since short-term crypto price action remains weak, overall market sentiment is still bearish.
Lin, APAC Business Head at Deribit, told Odaily Planet Daily that he isn’t particularly optimistic about current market performance: Ethereum had ETF tailwinds, but overall market weakness may delay official trading until August. Bitcoin closely tracks U.S. tech stocks, so macroeconomic data and Fed moves are key. Overall, summer markets tend to be sluggish, offering mostly short-term trading opportunities. He advises non-day traders to hold major coins and consider clearing altcoin positions. Ethereum’s price will hinge on overall market liquidity, future liquidity expectations (especially rate cuts), spot ETF progress, and clear positive news (e.g., major institutions or celebrities like Apple or Microsoft buying spot ETFs). Market consensus expects the Fed to cut rates in Q4, and Q3 speculation around this, coinciding with U.S. election results, will be a key inflection point.
On the investment front, Lin believes the market remains in a slow bull cycle. When prices break key technical levels and begin stabilizing, he typically sells put options to build positions or generate yield. If prices surge toward new highs, he may employ right-side strategies, selling call options for income. Currently, both BTC and ETH are excellent yield-generating assets. $60,000 and $3,000 are psychological support levels for BTC and ETH, respectively. His main altcoin watchlist includes SOL and WLD—favoring alts during strong market conditions and avoiding them during downturns.
Fall-Then-Rise Camp: Only After Absorbing Selling Pressure Can the Market Rebound
Crypto research firm 10X Research stated that Bitcoin is currently severely oversold. After volatility among some altcoins, KOLs are advising followers to buy the dip, while the Greed and Fear Index nears its lowest levels—typically correlated with price bottoms. Reasons behind Bitcoin’s sell-off are numerous: Mt. Gox’s Bitcoin distribution ($9 billion estimated value, starting July), German government’s sale of seized Bitcoin ($3 billion), miners selling $2–3 billion, ETF outflows of $1.4 billion, and OG wallets selling $1.2 billion. Assuming total selling pressure of $16–18 billion—comparable to YTD Bitcoin ETF inflows. Internal trading signals have already issued multiple sell alerts.
Although many attribute the recent drop to Mt. Gox FUD (and other factors mentioned above), a structural factor could lead to deeper declines before any rebound from lower levels becomes possible.
Summary: Bitcoin Faces Selling Pressure, Ethereum Rides ETF Expectations
Reviewing the above perspectives, it’s clear that industry insiders remain generally cautious yet optimistic. However, Bitcoin’s price facing selling pressure from Mt. Gox creditor payouts appears inevitable. Although the process will take time, market sentiment has already started fermenting and is directly reflected in prices. Meanwhile, Ethereum has entered a period of relative price stability due to spot ETF approval expectations. But if ETF developments fail to meet market expectations, the “bullish news” could easily turn into a negative catalyst.
Additionally, regarding factors contributing to the current complex market situation, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan previously wrote that spot Bitcoin ETFs artificially pulled forward future investment demand, making Bitcoin investing disappointing over the past year. The culprit, he argued, was Grayscale’s GBTC—its premium trading among hedge funds pulled forward tens of billions in future demand, forcing Bitcoin to attract equivalent new demand just to maintain equilibrium.
From this angle, whether the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs is ultimately good or bad remains debatable—a point we previously discussed in our article “Data Deep Dive: ETFs Delaying the Real Bull Run.”
As for the broader market outlook over the next one to two months, it may well remain in its current state—“Bitcoin to the left, Ethereum to the right.”
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
Odaily
