Crypto Market Outlook for June: ETH's Best Beta Is the Assets with "ETH" in Their Name
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Crypto Market Outlook for June: ETH's Best Beta Is the Assets with "ETH" in Their Name
June is also a big month for airdrops, so be mindful of the risks.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy Yu Zhong Kuang Shui
Hello everyone, here comes the June outlook.
In monthly content, after doing enough additions, this time I'd like to try the effect of subtraction—focusing only on my thoughts about future market trends and key timing for specific events (catalysts).
This cycle seems to have made money only for memecoin gamblers. $WIF did okay, but $PEPE's price swings were quite large—very few actually rode the full wave. There were also solid fundamental coins that performed well, though they're rare—just a handful such as $PENDLE. If we were to pick a word of the year, PVP would definitely be one of them.
So what should we do?
Here are some personal thoughts:
1. Fundamentals and Community
Are fundamentals important? I think yes.
I believe current fundamentals refer to the ability to "capture market attention." Today’s fundamentals involve project data, token distribution, community stickiness, marketing/influencer commentary, narrative/catalysts, and whether it meets core market demand—all of which require a more holistic evaluation of an asset.
Take $PENDLE as an example. Personally, I think Pendle excels across all these metrics. Regarding alignment with narratives, its initial rise was driven by fitting into the LSD narrative; this year, Pendle has deeply engaged with the LRT narrative, further pushing prices upward. This synergy keeps Pendle at the forefront of market attention—whenever people discuss or consider buying in, Pendle naturally comes to mind.
I’ve participated in Pendle’s community too—they do a good job building community engagement and product education. For instance, the account @PendleIntern is excellent. Users genuinely interested in Pendle products can learn strategies through this account and develop plans better suited to their financial situations.
I won’t go into detail on marketing—the Twitter space has plenty of material about Pendle. A quick summary: there’s little blind shilling; most content consists of logical, data-driven threads, short posts, and Prints based on actual product features.
When evaluating most assets, we need to reference these indicators.
2. Information Flow
It’s crucial to understand which layer you’re at within the information dissemination chain.
3. Market Sentiment
Learn to observe market sentiment. Specifically, immerse yourself in communities, watch how members and KOLs communicate, and check what smart money players say on Twitter during market highs and lows.
You can build your own dedicated information feed to monitor market sentiment around key timing points.
Look back at early May’s market sentiment—does it feel familiar?
Quick tip: Try scrolling through Douyin.
Also, remember to observe your own emotional fluctuations.
4. Practice Prediction
Many articles introducing GCR already cover this—no need to repeat. You can search for them.
Now let’s move on to some projects I’m particularly bullish on:
1. ETH ETF
ETH ETF is great—no further explanation needed. Aside from leveraged positions, the best beta plays on ETH are tokens with “ETH” in their names, such as $ETHFI and $ENS. (I won’t recommend $ENA; $ETC counts, though its deflation event has already passed.) I hold $LDO, which has solid fundamentals and circulation dynamics, but given its recent performance, I won’t recommend it here—even though it has warmed up lately.
Of course, the same applies to Pendle. But I've discussed Pendle many times this year, so I’ll skip repeating it here.
For memes, besides $PEPE, consider $MOG—it’s gaining traction overseas.
For ETH DeFi-related picks, I’d look at $MKR. Upcoming catalysts for $MKR include token split + SubDAO (another point worth watching is MakerDAO’s collaboration with Ethena).
As for beta plays, you can wait until ETH truly starts rising before jumping in.
Let me add a few words about Layer2.
1. BaseChain
I’ve positioned myself in $DEGEN on Base, but whether it pays off remains to be seen. It’ll be interesting to see what happens when Coinbase launches its smart wallet—how will BaseChain evolve? We should always keep an eye on projects capable of generating long-term cash flow for teams.
Pay close attention to opportunities on Base, especially in gaming—for example, Aavegotchi. Aavegotchi’s Layer3 built on Base is expected to launch mainnet in Q2 this year—possibly as soon as this month.
2. Arbitrum
The Arbitrum community’s proposal for a "$200M ARB Gaming Catalyst Program" is likely to pass. This will clearly benefit Arbitrum’s gaming ecosystem (e.g., TreasureDAO).
$MAGIC has expectations around launching a Layer3. On April 22, TreasureDAO launched the Layer3 testnet, with mainnet expected in Q3 this year—including staking support.
Additionally, Radiant might experience a short-term bump due to potential LayerZero token launch and v3 upgrade (though this rumor has been circulating multiple times—I likely won’t participate).
2. AI
On the AI front, I’ll only discuss two assets with confirmed catalyst dates:
$FET
The merger will happen on 6.11/6.13, after which it will be renamed $ASI.
$AR
Information related to $AO will be released on 6.13. Participants can mine $AO using $AR.
Personally, I’m more bullish on $AR.
There are many other AI-related tokens out there—I won’t list them all. Market sentiment in the AI sector shifts with external developments. However, I won’t consider participating in $WLD.
3. Political Memes
Among on-chain political memes, I’ve only participated in $MAGA. I bought in yesterday at 35 and plan to hold for now. I’ll be watching the sentencing hearing on 7.11 (Trump’s birthday is also approaching).
For CEX-based political memes, that’s $PEOPLE. I’m setting a $1 billion market cap target for $PEOPLE.
Given the high volatility of such tokens, my outlook may lag slightly. Therefore, once we see events like Trump speaking out to win over crypto voters or the unexpected approval of ETH ETF, we should recognize that politics will become a dominant market narrative—and aim to enter earlier.
4. Can Solana Break to New Highs?
Initially, I thought $SOL might suffer from capital drain due to $ETH’s strength.
Now I’ve changed my view: Solana retains its identity as a memecoin casino (consider celebrity memes—most choose to launch on Solana), and right now, market demand for memecoin gambling is strong.
Therefore, I don’t think $SOL will bleed too much value—$ETH and $SOL now attract different crowds, and $SOL users aren’t likely to migrate easily to $ETH. Instead, $ETH’s rise could lift overall market expectations and drive sentiment higher, benefiting Solana as well.
5. Others
1. Selfchain Mainnet
I got burned by this one ($FRONT) last year—so I'm not watching it anymore.
2. Fantom Sonic
Right now, the launch of Fantom’s Sonic mainnet appears to be "sell the news" for $FTM speculators. Keep an eye on AC’s next moves—now that the chain is live, they’ll surely want to do something on it (that’s my hope).
3. Uniswap “Launch Fee Mechanism” Vote
Postponed. Likely because a VC put pressure on Uniswap. I’ll keep some awareness of this (as a spectator), but I probably won’t participate in any $UNI speculation.
4. June is also a big month for airdrops—be mindful of the risks.
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