BTC Continues to Fluctuate: The Final Chance to Escape or Jump On Board? What's Next for Its Price Movement?
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BTC Continues to Fluctuate: The Final Chance to Escape or Jump On Board? What's Next for Its Price Movement?
Given the crypto market's nature where "volatility is the norm and long-term outlook is bullish," the current moment presents the best opportunity to accumulate positions.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAs inflationary pressures ease in the United States and rate cut expectations rise, the likelihood of approval for a spot Ethereum ETF has increased, triggering a rally in the cryptocurrency market with Bitcoin briefly surpassing $71,000. However, following hawkish signals from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, Bitcoin dropped again below $69,000.
Investor Sentiment Diverges Amid Volatility
Amid sharp Bitcoin price swings, market participants have shown clear divergence in sentiment.
On May 20, a crypto whale identified as 37tr7 withdrew 120 BTC (approximately $7.97 million) from Binance. Within a week, the address accumulated a total of 185 BTC at an average price of $64,712. On May 22, U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $154 million (2,211 BTC), marking eight consecutive days of positive flows.
In contrast, bearish crypto analyst James Check stated in his May 21 market report that while Bitcoin may rebound to $73,000—potentially signaling the start of an "escape velocity" move—he believes such momentum hasn't yet materialized. "Although the shift from enthusiasm to euphoria can happen quickly, it doesn’t feel like we’ve reached that escape velocity yet," Check noted. "This price level is also where short-term holders (STHs)—wallets holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days—are now 'sufficiently profitable,' which could trigger selling pressure and create resistance."
Crypto research firm 10x Research posted on X, maintaining its bearish outlook post-halving. It cited near-zero growth in stablecoin inflows and a significant decline in leverage on Bitcoin futures contracts since the halving as supporting evidence. Previously, the firm warned investors to watch for potential "fake dips" after a triangular consolidation pattern forms. Bitcoin’s relative strength has declined to around 40% during this correction, a level similar to three prior pullbacks since early 2023.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt previously suggested that Bitcoin may have already peaked in the current bull cycle when it hit a new high of $73,835, forecasting a drop back toward $30,000 or even lower to the 2021 lows. He attributed this expected correction to a phenomenon known as exponential decay, which he believes affects newly established highs. In the long run, such a decline might be "the best thing" for sustainable growth.
Bullish in the Long Term
MIIX Capital's latest research weekly report analyzed that the implied volatility of short-term out-of-the-money put options for BTC remains higher than that of call options, indicating ongoing market concerns about near-term price corrections. However, long-term option implied volatility remains stable, reflecting institutional confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.
PlanB posted on X that the average Bitcoin price during the 2020–2024 halving cycle was $34,000, slightly below the $55,000 predicted by the original Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model in 2019, but still within a reasonable range—especially considering Bitcoin was priced below $4,000 at the time of the forecast. An updated version of the S2F model using new data yields similar parameters and projections: Bitcoin could reach $500,000 during the 2024–2028 cycle and $4 million between 2028 and 2032.
Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, recently wrote that to curb yen depreciation, the Federal Reserve might enter into an unlimited dollar-yen swap agreement with the Bank of Japan—an outcome equivalent to implementing Yield Curve Control (YCC), resulting in U.S. Treasury yields being lower than they should be. Additionally, increasing money supply would lead to dollar depreciation. Hayes added that yen depreciation could accelerate in the fall, forcing action from U.S. and Japanese authorities. If his scenario unfolds, Hayes expects a new surge in cryptocurrencies, potentially pushing Bitcoin toward the $1 million mark.
Given the crypto market's nature of "volatility as the norm, long-term bullishness," the current environment presents an ideal opportunity for accumulating positions. To support this, Huobi HTX has launched a trading mining campaign offering negative-fee trading on BTC while distributing substantial rewards, better meeting user trading demands and enhancing overall experience.
Huobi HTX’s trading mining event includes both spot and derivatives trading. Users can participate by trading the BTC/USDT spot pair or BTC/USDT perpetual contract to share daily prize pools worth 100,000 USDT each in $HTX tokens. Participants must have a Rocket Score of at least 300 and successfully register on the event page.
Huobi HTX’s trading mining also innovatively introduced a 7*24 hour reward mechanism—daily prize pools are evenly divided into 24 time slots, with rewards refreshed hourly to ensure equal participation opportunities across different time zones. The maximum reward per user is 100 USDT per hour for either spot or futures trading mining; rewards cease once individual or pool caps are reached.
Currently, the Trading Mining Pizza Festival special event is nearing its end, offering a cumulative prize pool of 1.4 million USDT over seven days for participants to share.
Since launching spot trading mining, Huobi HTX has received strong market response, with high user engagement and widespread acclaim. Huobi HTX will continue improving service quality and introducing innovative products to build a secure, convenient, efficient, and feature-rich trading environment for users.
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