Variant co-founder Jesse Walden: In this bull market, you should distinguish between "signal" and "noise"
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Variant co-founder Jesse Walden: In this bull market, you should distinguish between "signal" and "noise"
Time management is crucial in high-noise environments.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsWritten by: Jesse Walden
Translated by: TechFlow
In a rising market, both signal and noise increase.
For crypto participants, it's important to understand signal versus noise and to distinguish between the two.
Signal
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Technology is maturing, expanding what’s possible
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More talented teams are launching interesting projects
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Price feedback drives broader user interest and increases adoption
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Faster experimentation leads to new use cases
Noise
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More mercenary teams jump on popular narratives, copy-pasting and mass-producing projects
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Everyone is launching a narrative or a token, then pumping its price
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A series of projects raise excessive amounts of capital
Since everyone in crypto is an investor to some degree—whether through holding tokens or building/working at startups—it's critical to analyze increasing activity by balancing short-term opportunities against rigorously evaluated long-term ones.
Here are a few principles I try to follow when investing:
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Short-term token prices do not predict long-term success.
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Projects that heat up quickly in the short term are more likely to experience black swan events.
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In high-noise environments, time management is crucial: measure how much time you spend on short-term versus long-term investments. Confusing the two is dangerous; mistaking one for the other is worse.
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When working with partners, it's important to understand their primary orientation—short-term or long-term.
After ten years in crypto, I continue to choose long-term investing. That said, sometimes the best way to understand the game is to play it. There is signal within the noise. But don’t lose your way—participate in the market thoughtfully and wisely.
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