After selling Anthropic for $900 million, can FTX achieve full repayment?
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
After selling Anthropic for $900 million, can FTX achieve full repayment?
A chance move in 2022 has become a "lifeline" for creditors.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily
On the evening of March 25, Beijing time, the Wall Street Journal reported that FTX has reached a deal worth $884 million with over twenty buyers to sell approximately two-thirds of its stake in AI startup Anthropic.
According to subsequently disclosed court documents, FTX plans to sell 29.5 million shares of Anthropic stock to 24 buyers. The largest buyer is ATIC Third International Investment, based in Abu Dhabi, which intends to purchase 16.6 million shares for $500 million. Jane Street also plans to acquire 3.3 million shares for $100 million, while a fund under Fidelity intends to buy 1.5 million shares for $50 million.
The transaction still requires final court approval. However, given that Judge John Dorsey of the Delaware bankruptcy court approved FTX’s plan to proceed with the sale in late February, the court is not expected to pose an obstacle to the deal's completion.
A 2022 Bet That Was Never Meant to Pay Off Has Become Creditors’ Lifeline
With the rise of artificial intelligence, Anthropic’s valuation has surged significantly over the past two years. Given that FTX led a $500 million investment during Anthropic’s Series B round, many FTX creditors now view the appreciation of this equity stake as their best chance of recovering their principal.
Anthropic is an AI company founded by former OpenAI employees and has developed Claude, an AI chat application similar to ChatGPT. It is now widely regarded as one of OpenAI’s biggest competitors.
Since its founding, Anthropic has raised billions of dollars in venture capital through multiple funding rounds.
In April 2022, Anthropic completed a $580 million Series B round, with FTX contributing $500 million—led by SBF himself, along with participation from senior executives including Nishad Singh, FTX’s co-chief engineer, and Caroline Ellison, former CEO of Alameda.
For a long time, there was no reliable disclosure regarding the valuation of the Series B round, making it impossible for the market to determine FTX’s exact purchase price or ownership percentage. However, in February this year, FTX disclosed precise figures while advancing the share sale process—confirming its stake at approximately 7.84%.
At the end of last year, multiple media outlets including The Information reported that Anthropic planned to raise $750 million at a valuation exceeding $18 billion. Based on that valuation, FTX’s 7.84% stake would be worth over $1.4 billion—a figure largely consistent with the current sale price FTX is pursuing.
Returning to FTX’s debt situation:
When FTX filed for bankruptcy, its asset shortfall was around $9 billion. In May 2023, FTX submitted filings stating it had recovered approximately $7 billion in liquid assets to date. While the exact accounting methods used by FTX remain unclear (both the shortfall and liquid assets may fluctuate with asset valuations), if we use a static “carving-the-boat” approach to calculate, the value of Anthropic shares alone could cover most of the remaining gap. Additionally, considering the overall upward trend in the cryptocurrency market, FTX continues to hold significant non-stablecoin assets—as evidenced by blockchain data from addresses linked to FTX—whose value rises alongside broader market gains.
Estimated Recovery Rate Rises Steadily, Growth Comparable to Solana
According to data compiled by Cherokee Acquisition, an investment bank specializing in bankruptcy claims and providing liquidity for FTX creditor positions, as of March 22, the estimated recovery rate (market value of FTX claims) had risen to between 93% (Bid) and 97% (Ask).
Notably, Cherokee Acquisition updates its data weekly. Given the concrete progress in FTX’s sale of Anthropic shares, the claim valuation is expected to rise further when the next update is released on March 29.
Looking back at the growth trajectory of FTX claim values over the past year and a half—from a mere 6% bid price on November 18, 2022, to today’s level—the claim value has increased more than 15-fold, a surge comparable to SBF’s once-favorite cryptocurrency, Solana (SOL).
From a market sentiment perspective, there is now considerable optimism that FTX will ultimately achieve near-full repayment of its debts. For every user affected by the FTX collapse, this may well be the best possible outcome.
To close, here’s a brief anecdote:
In June 2023, FTX nearly sold off its Anthropic stake prematurely.
Sources revealed that Perella Weinberg, the investment bank managing FTX’s bankruptcy proceedings, had been actively considering selling FTX’s Anthropic shares at the time—shortly after Anthropic’s Series C round valued the company at just $4.1 billion. After months of outreach to potential bidders, however, Perella Weinberg ultimately decided to hold.
Today’s market developments have proven that decision correct.
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
Odaily
