Grayscale: As the U.S. election approaches, Bitcoin's outlook is growing brighter
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Grayscale: As the U.S. election approaches, Bitcoin's outlook is growing brighter
In addition to becoming part of national political discourse, Bitcoin itself has gained momentum, rising more than 118% over the past year.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy Will Ogden Moore
Translated by Yvonne, Mars Finance
Following President Biden’s “laser eyes” Super Bowl post, our election tracker appears timely updated. Last month, the U.S. approved spot Bitcoin ETFs—arguably making the crypto asset class more relevant than ever, especially within the context of the U.S. presidential election. A recent survey conducted by Harris Poll on behalf of Grayscale underscores this political relevance: half of young voters say they consider a candidate’s stance on crypto before voting, and they hold crypto at higher rates than stocks.
With just weeks to Super Tuesday in March, Bitcoin has surged to its highest price in two years. Where do each of the candidates stand on crypto assets?
Since our last article on election candidates, the field has significantly narrowed. As of February 12, there are four major-party candidates remaining: President Joe Biden (Democrat), Dean Phillips (Democrat), former President Donald Trump (Republican), and Nikki Haley (Republican). Additionally, outside the two dominant parties, polls show Robert F. Kennedy Jr., running as an independent, emerging as a potential contender with over 10% support in general election polling.
2024 U.S. Presidential Candidates’ Statements on Cryptocurrency.
As of February 13, President Biden leads his party’s primary polls with 71% support. The Biden administration signed an executive order aimed at ensuring responsible development of digital assets. Meanwhile, Democratic challenger and underdog Dean Phillips (currently polling at 4%) advocates for a "nuanced understanding" and "balanced regulatory approach" to crypto, hoping to ensure regulation does not stifle innovation in the space.
Several Republican candidates dropped out of the race in January. Notably, staunch crypto advocate Vivek Ramaswamy ended his campaign and subsequently endorsed Trump (who currently leads Republican primaries with 75% support). Although Trump labeled Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies a “scam” during his presidency in 2019, he has since posted a set of digital collectibles on the Bitcoin blockchain, minting portraits of himself as “Ordinals.” However, whether his policy shift on CBDCs or willingness to use blockchain technology will extend into a broader change of attitude toward the entire crypto asset class remains to be seen. Meanwhile, Republican candidate Nikki Haley (currently polling at 17%) has not publicly shared her views on cryptocurrency.
On the other hand, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. calls cryptocurrency a “major engine of innovation.” He previously unveiled a plan to “eliminate capital gains taxes on Bitcoin” and spoke at the Bitcoin 2023 conference. While he may be the most pro-crypto among the remaining candidates, his path to victory remains uncertain—as no independent candidate has ever won a U.S. presidential election in modern history.
Looking ahead, Grayscale believes Bitcoin could continue tailwinds, including potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and the anticipated Bitcoin halving in April. As the November election approaches, it will be interesting to see whether these favorable conditions influence political attention on Bitcoin and the broader crypto asset class, particularly against the backdrop of timely global and national macro events. At Grayscale, we’ll be tracking these developments and how voter sentiment evolves.
Beyond becoming part of national political discourse, Bitcoin itself has gained momentum, rising over 118% in the past year. Looking forward, Grayscale believes Bitcoin may continue to benefit from tailwinds, including potential Fed rate cuts and the expected April Bitcoin halving. As the November election draws closer, it will be intriguing to observe whether these favorable conditions impact political focus on Bitcoin and the crypto asset class, especially given well-timed global and national macro events. At Grayscale, we will track these developments and the evolution of voter sentiment—so subscribe to stay updated.
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