November Outlook: Don't Expect a Major Layer2 Breakout
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November Outlook: Don't Expect a Major Layer2 Breakout
Buy the dip.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy Yu Zhong Kuangshui
GM, I've been pretty busy lately, hence the delay. Apologies.
Here comes the November outlook.
First, a quick overview of what I like or currently hold:
1. Cancun-related
Cancun is unlikely to happen this year, so don't expect a major Layer2 breakout before year-end. From Nov 13–19, the Ethereum Foundation will host the "Devconnect Istanbul" summit in Istanbul, Turkey. That’s worth watching. But remember—markets tend to dip around major events, so be cautious of risks.
Still, I continue to hold $ARB spot and accumulate steadily.
2. Arbitrum Ecosystem
The ARB Grants program ended last month, with incentives expected to roll out in January next year. While Arbitrum's chain activity is warming up, we’ll need to wait until next year for significant liquidity inflows. Recently, the most talked-about development is the proposal to enable $ARB staking, initiated by the $PLS team. The root cause? The $PLS team previously did something questionable, causing $plsARB to severely de-peg. This move seems like an attempt to use funds from the $ARB treasury to re-peg $plsARB—a classic case of spending someone else’s money. It's unclear whether this proposal will pass. If it does, it would be a short-term positive for $ARB. However, such governance chaos reflects deeper issues within Arbitrum’s governance structure, which could hinder its long-term growth as a Layer2 solution.
Speculative plays: $plsARB, $ARB
If the staking proposal passes, both $plsARB and $ARB stand to benefit in the short term.
3. Cosmos Ecosystem
The top four performers in the Cosmos ecosystem are likely Thorchain, Injective, Kujira, and Canto. Thorchain’s price rise has been driven by strong fundamentals—check their official data dashboard; recent metrics look excellent. Since $RUNE’s price closely tracks its fundamentals, it remains my top pick among Cosmos-based tokens.
$KUJI (Kujira) and $INJ (Injective), however, have seen rather arbitrary price surges, seemingly driven only by active market manipulation. Though not fundamentally justified, these application-specific chains do have decent foundational strength—best described as “the tallest dwarfs in the Cosmos family.”
Let me briefly explain my view on $RUNE.
To understand $RUNE’s price movement, you must understand its mechanism. $RUNE is essentially a volatility-long token—the greater the market volatility (mainly in $BTC and $ETH), the more arbitrageurs come to Thorchain to rebalance BTC-RUNE and ETH-RUNE pools back to 1:1 parity. These arbitrage trades drive transaction volume, generate fees, and boost LP yields (half paid in $RUNE). As LPs earn more, especially when $RUNE rises, their returns appear even higher. Growing TVL also increases demand for $RUNE (since LPs must pair 1:1 with RUNE and nodes buy RUNE to secure the network), further pushing up the price—and thus volatility. It becomes a self-reinforcing cycle: higher volatility → higher $RUNE price → higher volatility. Hence, as long as BTC, ETH, and RUNE remain volatile, $RUNE tends to rise. That’s why some call it “mini $LUNA.”
Canto generated strong market expectations due to anticipated Polygon migration and RWA integration, allowing it to maintain upward momentum. However, its LP rewards are fully inflation-funded via $CANTO, which poses a risk.
Other than that, my personal take on $TIA is simple: buy low, split into wallets, and stake.
4. $FRONT
My rationale for buying $FRONT lies in its SelfChain project. SelfChain is packed with upgrades—a modular, keyless, intent-centric Layer1. Later, Front plans to rebrand, swapping $FRONT for $SELF along with a token issuance increase. To me, this makes FRONT a compelling investment. The token swap should happen this year.
5. $DYDX
There's a lot of discussion about $DYDX staking, including yield calculations, so I'll keep this brief.
Post-v4, $DYDX transitions from a pure governance token (essentially a mineable token) to one generating real yield. After v4, all trading fees on DYDX go directly to validators. Users can stake $DYDX with validators—just like staking ETH—and receive 100% of the fee revenue. Previously, DYDX was the largest decentralized derivatives exchange. Let’s think: how high could staking yields reach?
A guess: if annualized yields hit 30%, will holders still dump $DYDX at the upcoming December unlock?
$DYDX is one of my favored high-potential assets. I plan to add positions after the unlock.
6. BRC20
I hold both $SATS and $ORDI (trading positions). Simply put, I’m bullish—no complex logic here. As leading projects in the BTC ecosystem, and with BTC ETF and halving narratives expected to dominate future market cycles, why wouldn’t I support and hold them?
7. Gaming
All game-related content will be detailed under my account @0xPixelPenguin. Currently, I’m deeply involved in Parallel ($PRIME) and Pixels Online (previously covered there). Pixels is farming-based with solid lore—I’ve bought NFTs. I continue accumulating $PRIME in spot. Parallel, strongly backed by Paradigm and Coinbase, is now in testing phase and migrating to Base. There’s no good reason not to be optimistic. It’s just not quite $PRIME’s time yet.
As for $GHST, not much to say—small position, still underwater.
Now, some additional projects I’m monitoring:
1. Tableland Rigs
Back in mid-year, I started buying Tableland Rigs NFTs. With the team scheduled to attend and speak in Istanbul, expectations are building toward a Tableland Rigs TGE. Timing unknown, but likely soon—either this year or next. Consider grabbing some Rigs now, fly to earn FT reputation, and potentially get an airdrop later. These NFTs function similarly to Gala’s node model—a form of early fundraising.
I personally hold Rigs NFTs.
2. $STG
Market hype around $STG centers on a potential Upbit listing with a Korean won trading pair (previously rumored, keyword: UDC), possibly between Nov 20–30. The other catalyst is a possible LayerZero airdrop, but I consider that unpredictable and unreliable as a basis for speculation. The Upbit listing seems more credible.
3. $LBR
I still hold a small amount of Lybra—it’s the only LSDFi token I continue to hold. For other LSDFi projects, I believe participating (depositing ETH) is fine, but buying their tokens requires caution.
4. Solana
$SOL has performed strongly, lifting the entire Solana ecosystem. Personally, I recommend trying Jito—the Solana LSD—to earn points and build reputation.
5. Sui & Aptos
Sui’s TVL has surpassed $100 million, with many farming opportunities across its ecosystem (e.g., Cetus, NAVI). However, this TVL surge is largely fueled by $SUI liquidity incentives provided by the Sui Foundation. When buying $SUI, be mindful of potential sell pressure—don’t assess purely on fundamentals. Focus instead on the broader ecosystem development.
Aptos’ TVL has also risen significantly. From my perspective, unlocked holders are redeploying $APT into the ecosystem. Maybe they know something—we might see an “unlock narrative” play out for $APT.
6. Blur
This month, Blur’s key date is November 20. Price performance has been solid. The current $BLUR rebound may stem from NFT market recovery, oversold bounce, and unlock expectations. Similar to $APT, worth watching closely.
Finally, there are many conferences this November. Everyone talks about “sell the news,” so my strategy this month is frequent profit-taking and buying the dips. The bull market is here—wishing everyone prosperity.
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