TechFlow news, September 17 — According to Jinshi Data, foreign media analysis indicates the US Dollar Index is hovering near a 41-month low, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have hit record highs, and US Treasury yields are approaching April lows. Market pricing fully reflects expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Given ongoing dovish sentiment and the dollar's downtrend, if the Fed delivers only the anticipated 25-basis-point cut, a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" reaction could occur, potentially leading to a dollar rebound and profit-taking in US equities.
To sustain the dollar's decline and the rally in US assets, a 50-basis-point rate cut and Federal Reserve Chair Powell's endorsement of aggressive easing may be necessary. Although the market assigns only a 3% probability to a 50-basis-point cut, such an outcome cannot be ruled out—record downward revisions in US employment data might force the Fed's hand.
