TechFlow, September 16 — The market has almost fully priced in the Federal Reserve's anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut this week. According to data from the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut has risen to 95.9%. However, BiyaPay analysts caution that the true market direction will still depend on the wording of the policy statement and guidance on future interest rate paths.
The core logic lies in "expectation fulfillment" potentially triggering profit-taking. The S&P 500 has rebounded 12% from its August lows, with valuations entering overbought territory; Bitcoin has risen 23% over the past month, with futures open interest hitting a year-to-date high, indicating overheated leveraged trading. If the rate cut is delivered without additional dovish signals, U.S. equities and BTC may face "buy the rumor, sell the news" selling pressure.
Meanwhile, macro constraints persist: sticky core PCE inflation, elevated fiscal deficits, and stock-bond correlation risks could all dampen the effectiveness of rate cuts. Historically, after the two "preventive rate cuts" in 2019, both U.S. equities and Bitcoin declined.
BiyaPay analysts point out that in such uncertain conditions, investors should remain vigilant against short-term volatility. With BiyaPay, users can allocate U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, Bitcoin, and other digital assets in one place, capturing cross-market opportunities while diversifying risk.
