TechFlow news, August 26 — According to Jinshi Data, Credit Agricole currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year, once in September and once in December. However, unlike other institutions, it forecasts a significantly higher terminal rate, anticipating an extended pause in policy adjustments at a target rate of 4.00%. The bank believes persistent inflation will limit the Fed's room for aggressive easing, as the U.S. economy is slowing but has not yet entered a recession. Cost pass-through from tariffs could cause inflation to accelerate again, albeit possibly temporarily. Despite recent data deterioration, the labor market remains relatively healthy, giving the Fed more room to resist calls for a more aggressive easing cycle.
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