TechFlow news, August 11 — Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), author of the HTX DeepThink column and researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that the market has widely noticed former President Trump's recent nomination of his long-time economic advisor Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board. As a key advocate of tariff policies within the Trump organization and a firm supporter of rate cuts, Miran's stance contrasts clearly with the cautious approach of current Fed Chair Powell. The move is interpreted as strengthening dovish forces within the Fed, reinforcing investor expectations for future accommodative policies. Driven by this sentiment, risk assets such as Bitcoin rebounded noticeably last week, with market sentiment turning more optimistic.
This week, the U.S. will release three critical economic indicators: July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and the so-called “fear index” retail sales data. Markets broadly view these figures as key signals to validate expectations for a September Fed rate cut. If both CPI and PPI come in above forecasts, investors may partially scale back rate-cut bets, potentially pushing the dollar higher in the short term and exerting temporary pressure on crypto markets. Conversely, if retail sales fall significantly below expectations, it would highlight weak economic growth, sustaining high odds for a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, limiting the dollar’s upside and supporting further gains in risk assets like Bitcoin.
Geopolitical attention is also rising. Trump and Putin are expected to meet in Alaska on August 15 to discuss Ukraine and bilateral relations. The outcome of this meeting could once again influence market risk appetite.
Overall, the crypto market this week will primarily be driven by macroeconomic data and geopolitical developments. Under a base-case scenario—moderate inflation and weak retail sales—Bitcoin could continue its upward trend, targeting the $126,000 level. However, should inflation exceed expectations, caution is warranted for a potential pullback toward the $116,000–$118,000 range. In general, this week may exhibit a “data-driven, amplified sentiment volatility” trading pattern.
