TechFlow news, according to Chaoxiang Research, on July 14, 2026, Nomura Securities released a research report, citing data from the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, in May, Japan's packaging substrate shipment value reached 27.8 billion yen, a 36% year-on-year increase, hitting a record high; shipment area increased by 10%, and the average price per square meter rose 23% to 1.356 million yen. The report pointed out that Nvidia Rubin packaging demand will surge this summer (at latest August), but the variable worth more attention is that Rubin Ultra may shift from a four-die structure to a dual-module structure, as well as the large interposer integration challenges brought by HBM4 wiring upgrades. Intel released EMIB-T technology at ECTC, expected to complete mass production preparation in 2026, capable of integrating up to 12 HBM4 units under an interposer-less solution, with power supply voltage drop improved by 68-80% compared to EMIB; TSMC maintains its lead relying on 3DFabric Alliance and power/thermal advantages.
Nomura Securities believes that the core battlefield of the next-generation packaging competition lies in power supply, thermal dissipation, CPO, and 3D hybrid bonding, excess returns in the packaging substrate industry will come from the ability to bind with customer technology routes.
