TechFlow news, August 5 — Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), author of the HTX DeepThink column and researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that the July FOMC meeting kept interest rates steady at 5.25%–5.50%, offering no guidance on future rate cuts, sparking market concerns over "higher for longer" interest rates. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries immediately rose to 4.24%, the dollar index reclaimed levels above 100, gold dropped below $3,270, Bitcoin pulled back to the $116,000 range, and on-chain activity declined in tandem.
However, three days later, the release of the July non-farm payrolls report showed an unexpected "cliff-like drop": only 73,000 jobs were added, far below the expected 180,000, with May–June employment figures revised downward by approximately 90%. The reality of a "systematically overstated" labor market prompted a swift reassessment of the Fed's policy path, pushing CME FedWatch's probability of rate cuts up from 38% to 82%, while bets on two rate cuts this year jumped to 64%. Consequently, the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.10%, gold rebounded intraday by $40, and Bitcoin briefly recovered before dipping again to around $112,000.
Although the sudden cooling in short-term employment data triggered sharp market volatility, structural indicators such as household debt ratios, credit card delinquency rates, and commercial lending suggest that the U.S. economy is currently experiencing "slowing growth" rather than systemic recession. This combination of "weaker employment + easing inflation" may signal an impending shift in monetary policy from tight to accommodative, placing risk assets in a window marked by high volatility and liquidity-driven dynamics.
Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor is it an offer, solicitation, or recommendation regarding any investment product.
