TechFlow, July 10 — Following the U.S. long weekend on July 4, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzed that the U.S. announced another delay of tariffs originally set to take effect on August 1, securing a final negotiation window. June's non-farm payroll rose by 147,000 (previous figure revised up by 16,000), unemployment rate dropped to 4.12%, and average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-on-month, causing July rate cut expectations to plunge from 24% to around 5%. The terminal rate is now projected at 3.8% by end-2025 and 3.15% by end-2026. Fueled by major tax reforms under the Trump administration and increased NATO defense spending, the S&P 500 has repeatedly hit new highs. Bitcoin extended gains this morning to fresh highs, ETH ETF saw single-day inflows reach a quarterly record, and Fundstrat’s BMNR raised $250 million to aggressively increase its ETH holdings, driving its stock price up more than 30-fold.
Last night's release of the Fed's June meeting minutes revealed significant internal disagreement over the impact of tariffs on inflation. Only a minority of officials supported a July rate cut, while most opted to remain on hold. The next key inflection point will be the CPI data on July 15 and the current earnings season. Amid the summer window shaped by "delayed tariffs, fiscal expansion, resilient employment, and Fed divergence," BTC and SPX are positioned for continued short-term strength. However, their trajectory will remain heavily influenced by macroeconomic data, geopolitical developments, and policy risks.
On-chain activity further confirms market resilience: centralized exchange BTC reserves have fallen to approximately 2.4 million BTC (less than 11% of circulating supply). In derivatives, Deribit's Bitcoin options open interest surpassed $40 billion with a Put/Call ratio of 0.75 and maximum pain at $102,000; ETH options OI exceeded $20 billion, Put/Call ratio at 0.52, with maximum pain locked at $2,200. These figures reflect tightening liquidity alongside stablecoin buying power, suggesting cautious optimism and potential for catch-up gains and base-building in crypto assets during the summer window. However, a BTC break below $102,000 or an ETH drop below $2,200 could trigger maximum pain-related liquidations.
